You are forgetting the first rule in all of this.

"If anyone really knew that a stock was going to go up so much, let alone had an idea it might...why on earth would you tell anyone else ?"

I wouldn't. No one would. I'd buy as much of it as I could while no one knew about it and wait for my investment thesis to play out in the meantime.

Even if it was legitimate, you still run the risk of a 'pump and dump', just like meme stocks. No one rings a bell when people decide to take profits or just de-risk their overweight position. Ever seen "Boiler Room" or read "Liars Poker" ?

And on the other side of that, you have institutional short sellers, who can easily crush any retail investor's long position by sheer weight of money, even in good companies. The sharemarket arena is cutthroat, don't ever forget that; retail investors too often have the footprints of institutional ones across their backs, the latter would cut your legs off to make a dollar if they could. There are no morals out there.

Besides, there is NEVER "a sure thing" in the stockmarket; even when companies have done well or done badly during reporting season, overall sentiment can still deliver unexpected results because it wasn't as good (or as bad) as people thought.

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