How long can the ASX bull run really last?

The ASX is up 30% since 2023. But the most dangerous phase of the bull market may still lie ahead.

It feels a long time ago now, but back in late 2023, I gave a speech to an investment crowd at the Windsor Hotel in Melbourne.

It turned into one of my finest hours, but only in hindsight. I left the stage kind of sweaty and drained.

We were there to help people decide what to do with their money. Tough gig.

I bought a new jacket for the event. At least I'd look good if I made a fool of myself. I said to the audience that sentiment was terrible, expectations were low and ASX shares were down in the dumps.

It was good news. It meant there was a huge opportunity to buy stocks on the cheap and position for a rebound.

The ASX was around a two-year low at this time.

When everyone feels negative, opportunity often hides

Afterwards an older gent pointed a finger at me and said, "You! You're too positive!" I don't blame him.

That was the general vibe at the time. There was no momentum in the stockmarket. The news was uninspiring.

Here we are, nearly three years later.

The S&P/ASX 200 hit a record high in February this year. It is up about 30% since that speech, and more if you include dividends.

Plenty of individual stocks have done far better than that. My little speech hit the market.

Confession. I can't take all the credit. I had help.

An Australian man called Colin Nicholson wrote a great book nearly 20 years ago called Building Wealth in the Stock Market. It's a beauty.

I owe him one because behind the scenes I was using his market framework straight out of the book.

The three-stage pattern hiding in this rally

Nicholson describes and divides a bull market into three broad stages like this:

• Stage 1 - Reviving confidence
• Stage 2 - Increasing earnings
• Stage 3 - Speculation

You know what? For such a simple description, it's been bang on over the past three years.

The market rallied over 2024 and 2025 despite no earnings growth.

Confidence came back as interest rates and inflation moderated, AI drove huge growth and excitement in the US and China's economy held together.

That was Stage 1.

I put us at Stage 2, currently, for both the US and Australia.

The ASX is seeing earnings growth again, thanks to strong resource prices and cost cutting. US market earnings improved faster than Australia and are still going up this year.

Why the easy gains may be over

Confidence is solid, although occasionally rattled by events like the Iran shock recently. There'll be a list of worries for the market to climb, because there always is.

At some point we're going to go into Stage 3, speculation. Nicholson notes multiple features about this stage.

Two are that interest rates will be relatively high. Another is that "new paradigm" theories get advanced.

We already know that interest rates are likely going higher. And there's the AI revolution seeping into popular consciousness every day.

The groundwork for a move into Stage 3 is already laid.

At this stage, I expect the speculation to appear heaviest in the resource sector as the resource supercycle narrative gains more traction.

Like all bull market narratives, there are elements of truth here that will get juiced the higher prices and stock prices go.

The market is likely to become more volatile as the market goes higher and fundamentals get stretched.

How much longer can this run last?

Timing is going to become important as the bull run ages.

ChatGPT tells me that the average ASX 200 bull market since 1990 is 46 months, or 3.8 years.

That would suggest we have until about mid-2027 to mid-2028 if that time estimate holds and we take November 2023 as the starting point for the ASX 200.

This is an educated guess, and no more.

The danger signal most investors miss

Here's the kicker you'll need to watch for.

If the market is going to peak around these dates, and please remember that this is no more than a thought experiment today, it's not going to feel dangerous or risky.

In fact, it will feel the opposite, comfortable.

Sir John Templeton famously said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

I expect to give a speech around this time and warn people away from the stockmarket because of all the risks building.

I also expect an older gent to come up to me and say, "You! You're too negative!"

Some things change. Human nature doesn't.

Callum Newman is a senior equity analyst at Marcus Today.

Get stories like this in our newsletters.