How Tabcorp is betting on a new era
For decades, Tabcorp Holdings (ASX: TAH) has been synonymous with Australian wagering, a name etched into the country's racing culture and retail betting landscape.
But the company that once relied on its monopoly roots is now fighting for relevance in a fiercely competitive, digital-first market.
After years of structural challenges and a bruising demerger, Tabcorp is rewriting its playbook.
A new leadership team, a leaner cost base, and a bold omni-channel strategy are setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing turnarounds on the ASX. The question for investors: is this the moment to back the house?
What Tabcorp is - today
Tabcorp operates Australia's largest wagering and media network, anchored by its TAB brand and Sky Racing media arm.
TAB spans retail venues, on-course betting, and digital platforms, while Sky delivers racing and sports content to domestic and international audiences.
MAX, its gaming services arm, supports venues and regulators with technology solutions. This integrated ecosystem -distribution, content, and wagering - gives Tabcorp a strategic advantage that few competitors can replicate.
The company's profile changed dramatically in 2022 when it demerged its lotteries and keno business into The Lottery Corporation.
That move left Tabcorp as a pure-play wagering and media operator, simplifying its structure and sharpening its focus on one mission: becoming a world-class sports entertainment company.
Why it has changed
The transformation accelerated in 2024. Tabcorp secured a 20-year Victorian wagering licence, a critical win that levels the playing field on taxes and fees and provides long-term certainty in its most important retail state.
At the same time, the company abandoned its old TAB25 targets and embraced a turnaround plan under new CEO Gillon McLachlan.
The strategy? Drive omni-channel integration, consolidate tote operations, monetise media assets more aggressively, and enforce cost discipline.
A workforce restructure and leadership shake-up followed, signalling a company ready to move fast.
Who is leading the turnaround
McLachlan, best known for modernising the AFL, has assembled a team built for disruption. CFO Mark Howell provides continuity, while COO Kayelene Snowden oversees execution. Jarrod Villani, formerly at Paramount ANZ, now leads commercial and media, tasked with unlocking Sky's value.
Robert Fraser heads technology and transformation, and Narelle McKenzie brings legal expertise from Telstra. This mix of media, tech, and regulatory experience is exactly what Tabcorp needs to compete in a digital-first world.
Why we think it's a buy now
The numbers are turning. After a painful AU$1,359.7 million loss in FY24, Tabcorp returned to profitability in FY25 with net profit of AU$36.6 million and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.016.
Operational savings of AU$39 million came in ahead of expectations, and Wagering & Media revenue grew 12.8% in FY25.
The Victorian licence renewal underpins stability, while digital initiatives are gaining traction. UBS recently upgraded Tabcorp to Buy, forecasting an EPS CAGR of 11% from FY26 to FY28 and setting a price target of AU$1.12 - well above the current share price of around AU$1.05. Coupled with its strong dividend growth and improving sentiment, Tabcorp looks poised for a strong comeback.
Bottom line
Tabcorp is no longer the complacent incumbent of old. It's a leaner, sharper operator with assets that matter: deep distribution, owned media, and a leadership team aligned to a clear strategy.
The turnaround is real, but not without risk. For investors willing to bet on execution, Tabcorp offers something rare in today's market, a credible recovery story with asymmetric upside.
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