Monash IVF shares plunge after latest embryo mix-up

Monash IVF Group (ASX: MVF) is back in the headlines, and for all the wrong reasons.

Shares have plunged 25% following news of a second embryo mix-up this year and for many investors, it's déjà vu.

The stock was already under pressure after a similar incident earlier in 2024. Now, with the share price down nearly 60% since April last year, the market is asking a tough but crucial question: Is this a disaster or a deep-value opportunity hiding in plain sight?

There's no sugar-coating it, two high-profile incidents in one year are a serious blow to any healthcare business. Reputational damage, regulatory scrutiny, and the threat of lawsuits all weigh heavily on investor sentiment. But beneath the headlines, a different story is unfolding.

Monash IVF isn't some speculative small-cap. It's the second-largest fertility provider in Australia, with over 30% market share and an expanding presence in Southeast Asia.

Fertility services are one of the fastest-growing sectors in global healthcare, supported by rising demand, aging demographics, and increasing government and private investment in reproductive health.

Despite recent setbacks, Monash has been consistently profitable and strategically expanding its operations. The fundamentals remain intact. And while trust takes time to rebuild, management has acted swiftly, cooperating with regulators, reviewing clinical procedures, and signalling a clear commitment to restoring confidence.

From a technical perspective, the stock is now trading near all-time lows, with heavy volume during the sell-off suggesting possible capitulation.

However, key support appears to be forming around the $0.50 level, therefore, if sentiment stabilises, the abnormally large volume that poured in a few weeks ago, might have just been some serious savvy value hunters making a play.

If we see price hold from here, a rebound toward $0.90 isn't out of the question.

So, here's the bottom line. If you believe in the long-term growth of the IVF sector and Monash's ability to recover, this might just be a rare chance to buy a market leader at a deep discount.

What were the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Financials, up over 3% followed by Consumer Discretionary, up under half a per cent and Healthcare, slightly down.

The worst performers include Energy, down over 4% followed by Information Technology and Industrials, both down just under 2%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Light & Wonder, up over 13% followed by Metcash and Reece Limited, both up over 7%.

The worst-performing stocks include Northern Star Resources, down over 8% followed by Woodside Energy, down over 7% and Brambles, down over 5%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All-Ordinaries Index bounced back, rising 0.7 per cent and reversing last week's decline.

The catalyst, a peace deal brokered by the United States between Israel and Iran, easing tensions in the Middle East and providing much-needed relief to global markets.

Financial stocks led the rebound, as investors rotated into perceived safe havens. On the other hand, energy stocks, particularly in the oil sector, took a hit as the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices began to unwind.

Technically, the market found solid support at the 8600 level, the same level we flagged last week, and rallied strongly from there. Now, attention shifts to the 8900 level, which remains a major resistance zone and the final hurdle before a possible new all-time high.

However, there's a catch: trading volumes have been relatively light, raising questions about how committed buyers really are to this rally. Without stronger conviction, any push toward record highs could lose steam.

To confirm a breakout, the index would need to decisively clear 8900 and hold above that level. Until that happens, a reversal or short-term stall remains a real possibility. In short, this is a key moment for traders.

Stay sharp and stay chart focused. The next move could set the tone, outlining how bullish or bearish the market will be in the second half of the year.

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