Are markets rewarding investors or influencers?

Here's an uncomfortable question: are markets still rewarding good investing, or simply rewarding whoever can influence the crowd first?

Over the past few years, we've watched stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies move on political statements, viral social media posts and unexpected geopolitical events that had little to do with company fundamentals.

That's forcing investors to rethink one of the oldest assumptions in finance: that prices always reflect value.

Take Donald Trump, for example.

His latest financial disclosure revealed more than US$1.4 billion in income from his family's cryptocurrency ventures during 2025, making digital assets his largest reported source of income.

At the same time, his administration has adopted a far more crypto-friendly stance than previous governments.

Whether the two are connected isn't the point.

The reality is that when influential figures have significant financial exposure to an asset class and the ability to shape policy and investor sentiment, markets become far more difficult for ordinary investors to navigate.

The same questions are being asked in commodity markets.

Earlier this year, U.S. authorities began investigating more than US$2.6 billion worth of unusually timed oil trades placed shortly before major announcements relating to Iran and the Middle East.

Those announcements sent oil prices sharply lower, leaving many wondering whether some participants knew more than the rest of the market.

Then there's social media.

A single post from Elon Musk has repeatedly moved cryptocurrencies, AI stocks and even his own companies within minutes.

Algorithms now react faster than humans can read the headline, amplifying moves long before most retail investors have had time to think.

This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's simply the reality of modern financial markets.

Politics, billionaires, central banks and algorithms all influence markets.

The game has become faster, noisier and, at times, less connected to underlying business fundamentals.

So how do individual investors compete?

Not by trying to predict the next tweet or political announcement.

Instead, they need to focus on these three things.

1. Follow price before opinion

If the market isn't behaving the way the fundamentals suggest it should, respect the price action.

Markets can remain irrational far longer than most investors expect.

2. Wait for confirmation

Chasing the first move after a headline is often when emotions are highest, and risk is greatest.

Patience frequently delivers a better entry and a clearer picture.

3. Manage risk relentlessly

You can't control the next geopolitical event, a surprise policy announcement, or a viral social media post.

You can, however, control your position size, your stop-loss and whether you choose to participate at all.

The biggest edge investors have today isn't having more information, given that everyone receives breaking news within seconds.

It's having the discipline to ignore the noise until the odds are genuinely in your favour.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Healthcare and Information Technology, both up more than 2%, followed by Energy, up more than 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Utilities, down more than 4%, followed by Real Estate, down more than 3% and Consumer Staples, down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Life360, up more than 9.15%, followed by Telix Pharmaceuticals, up more than 12% and Pro Medicus, up more than 9%.

The worst-performing stocks include BlueScope Steel, down more than 9%, followed by Stockland and APA Group, both down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index drifted lower again this week, finishing with a modest 0.37% loss on Thursday.

It looked like the market was set for a positive week after a promising start.

But sellers returned later in the week, erasing those gains and keeping the index under pressure.

Healthcare and Information Technology were the standout performers, suggesting investors are beginning to search for value in sectors that have lagged for some time.

While the broader market remains subdued, this rotation is another reminder that opportunities still exist, even when the index itself isn't doing much.

From a technical perspective, the All Ords is becoming increasingly interesting.

Price action continues to compress into a tighter range, something that often precedes a meaningful breakout.

Since earlier this year, we've seen a pattern of lower highs and higher lows develop, signalling not only indecision but also an intense battle between buyers and sellers.

Markets simply can't remain compressed forever. Eventually, one side wins.

If this pattern continues, I expect strong support around the 8800 level, with resistance sitting near 9000.

The narrowing range means that when the breakout does come, it could be quite decisive.

At this stage, I still believe the higher probability is to the upside, but there are competing forces at play.

Recent reports of increased short selling in the banking sector suggest some investors are betting on further weakness.

If they're right, Financials could weigh heavily on the broader market.

On the other hand, the Materials sector continues to attract investment flows as demand for commodities remains strong.

So, the battle lines are drawn.

Will Financials drag the market lower, or will Materials provide enough strength to lift the market higher?

Right now, Australia's share market is largely driven by these two heavyweight sectors, while many others are caught in the crossfire.

That may not be such a bad thing, though, as some of those overlooked sectors are quietly starting to recover.

Good luck and good trading.

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