Market turmoil: Are Trump's tariffs a repeat of the 1930s trade war?

Donald Trump's latest wave of global import tariffs is sending shockwaves throughout world economies, drawing comparisons to the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.

Back then, protectionist policies triggered a global trade war, deepened the Great Depression, and led to nearly a decade of stagnant stock market growth.

Long-term investors were left watching their portfolios go nowhere for years. So, are we heading down the same path? And more importantly, is it time to rethink your investment strategy?

History offers some clear warning signs. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 slapped higher tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods. The world retaliated, trade collapsed, and what started as a financial crisis spiralled into a prolonged economic disaster. The Dow Jones paid the price, failing to break its 1937 high until 1946.

Why? Because slowing global trade creates weaker economic conditions, and markets thrive on growth-not stagnation.

Fast forward to Trump's first presidency in 2018, when tariffs were once again the weapon of choice. The result? The Dow Jones found itself stuck in a sideways grind around 25,000 for more than four years. The pattern is clear - tariffs slow down future stock market gains. So, what's your plan to navigate what could be another era of sluggish returns?

The old buy-and-hold strategy might not be your best bet in the years ahead. Instead, a more active approach could be the key to staying ahead.

And before you think this requires a PhD in rocket science, think again. A few simple rules and the right education can help you ride the market's upswings while sidestepping the inevitable downturns. If history is about to repeat itself, wouldn't you rather be prepared?

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week? 

The best performing sectors include Communication Services up more than 1%, followed by Utilities and Healthcare, both up under half a per cent.

The worst performing sectors include Materials and Energy, both down more than 5%, followed by Information Technology, down more than 2%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, up more than 5%, followed by Commonwealth Bank, up more than 3%, and Coles, up more than 2%.

The worst performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down more than 21%, followed by Mineral Resources, down more than 16% and IGO Limited, down more than 15%.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

Sellers took control this week, driving the All-Ordinaries Index down more than 2.5% following Trump's announcement of global reciprocal tariffs. Right now, any negative news is shaking investor confidence, particularly among institutional players, seeing the index swinging like a yoyo.

But is there a silver lining hidden in plain sight? Let's break it down.

Despite heightened volatility and global uncertainty, the All Ords has yet to break its March 14 low. With the level of selling pressure in the market, you'd expect that low to have been taken out by now to resume the downtrend. But it hasn't-and that's a crucial signal.

If the index can hold above 7949.90 despite the current turmoil, it would suggest that a major low is in place and that the market is setting up for an upward move towards the 8400 level.

However, if sellers push and close the index below 7949.90, we could see further short-term indecision before support forms over the next couple of months. A decisive break below 7800 would open the door to a deeper pullback toward 7400, although this remains the less likely scenario.

Regardless of the broader market swings, there are still standout stocks bucking the trend. The key is digging in and finding those outlier opportunities.

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