Do tradies really earn more than uni grads in Australia?
Is a uni degree still the smartest path to a high-earning career, or will a trade give you better value in the AI era?
"What comes next?' is the question hundreds of thousands of young Australians ask when school ends each year.
For many, the path will lead them to university and a white-collar job. In decades past, this has often been viewed as the surest bet for achieving a stable and financially fruitful career.
As Blair Chapman, senior economist at the leading online employment marketplace Seek, alludes to, there are challenges on the horizon for university graduates - some that are cyclical and others that could prove longer lasting.
"We're seeing a lot of competition across the board right now - applications are at record levels and the competition is stiff out there for graduates looking for work.
"There's also a lot of uncertainty about the appropriate size of grad programs going forward, given that AI may be able to reduce the need for a head count," he says.
So, is university education still the surest path to career and financial security or could other options become more appealing in a world of shifting demand and rapid technological change?
What university study costs today
More than one million domestic students were enrolled in higher education in 2024, according to the Department of Education - a similar number to 10 years ago.
What has changed is the cost of a university degree. Students commencing studies in arts or law this year, for instance, could end up paying more than $52,000 for a three-year degree.
The amount of debt students are leaving university with has also grown.
Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that between the 2014-15 and 2024-25 financial years, the average outstanding HELP-HECS balance grew from $18,075 to $27,738.
How university qualifications affect earning potential
At a time when younger Australians are under the pump financially, these rising costs are hardly going to be welcome, but they may be a short-term setback for a long-term gain.
Learning aside, university education has often been viewed as an investment in career prospects and earning potential. And that still seems to hold true.
Australians with a postgraduate degree are the country's highest earners by education level, pulling in a median of $2000 each week, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
That compares to $1700 for employees with a bachelor's degree, $1300 for those with a Certificate III or IV and $1000 for those without any non-school qualifications.
In practice, the value of higher education from an earnings perspective isn't spread evenly across fields of study.
It hardly needs to be said that graduates in areas such as medicine or engineering will typically land roles with higher earning potential.
Which degrees lead to the strongest job demand
Beyond pay, students may also want to consider future demand for their skills and how likely it is that they will be able to find - and maintain - a job in their chosen field.
At present, Chapman says that roles like registered nurses and accountants are among the most in-demand across the country.
Looking forward, it's also students with degrees related to healthcare that Chapman believes are likely to be among the most sought after - and least likely to be impacted by AI.
"Health-related qualifications are going to continue to be in demand, especially as the Australian population ages and more of the Baby Boomer generation reach that critical age in their 70s and 80s where care needs increase dramatically.
"So those degrees are going to be valuable for the next five, 10, 15 years.
"And I don't think AI is going to be able to automate any of these care roles anytime soon. It's going to help with diagnoses and with scheduling, but it's never going to replace that need for a human hand to help a patient."
"Then there's also the emerging demand for mental health and welfare qualifications.
"Over the past two decades the need for advice has seen demand for roles really pick up, and we've not yet seen the level of supply in those qualifications increase to compensate for that extra demand," says Chapman.
Why trades remain a high-earning alternative
University isn't, and has never been, the only pathway for those looking to build a successful career. One of the many other avenues is pursuing a trade.
Earnings-wise, it can be a lucrative option.
Take electricians, for one. Data from Seek shows that the average salary range for electrician roles ($95,000 to $115,000) is roughly on par with that of lawyers and engineers ($100,000 to $120,000).
And there are simply not enough skilled workers in particular trades to keep up with current demand, says Chapman.
"We've got a housing supply shortage that is encouraging building and we've got major infrastructure being built across the country, so that's driving a lot of demand for tradies.
"Electricians, plumbers, refrigeration and HVAC mechanics and technicians - we've seen demand really increase for these sorts of roles, especially roles that can support data centres. This data centre boom we're seeing is putting a lot more pressure on them.
"Trade roles are also relatively robust. Until we have robots that can drive themselves to your home and come in to do your plumbing, I don't think they're going to be impacted by AI."
One of the issues, says Chapman, is that it takes time to train up and educate the tradespeople needed to meet these needs in the economy.
What it costs to become a tradie
It's part of the reason that Federal and State governments have been heavily subsiding vocational training courses in recent years for a number of priority areas through the fee-free TAFE skills agreement.
In short, the initiative has made courses in areas like aged care and construction free for many students, including priority groups like younger people (aged 17-24), First Nations Australians and women undertaking studies in non-traditional fields.
Even without the subsidies, those looking to pursue a trade will typically pay far less to complete their required studies (and come away with less debt) than the majority of degrees at university.
An apprentice plumber undertaking a three-year Certificate III in Plumbing through TAFE NSW, for instance, is looking at a maximum $20,390 outlay compared to the more than $50,000 someone wanting to undertake an arts degree at university will incur.
How AI is reshaping different careers
The elephant in the room is, of course, AI. Specifically, how much of an impact will technological advances in automation and AI have on various roles and sectors? And not just for those leaving school, but those who are already in the workforce.
Given the pace of change, it's a difficult question to answer. But it's one that Evan Shellshear, adjunct associate professor at The University of Queensland, sought to investigate in research conducted last year.
Shellshear and his colleague Kah Wee Oh analysed the European skills, competences, qualifications and occupations dataset to try and understand which skills are disappearing and appearing, and which roles are most and least likely to be automated by AI.
Roles most exposed to automation
One of the major takeaways is that there isn't necessarily a simple white- and blue-collar divide. Rather, the jobs most threatened by automation and AI are single-task roles.
"The roles that we are seeing disappear are where the role itself comprises a single task.
"AI tools and the way it works today - which is what we call narrow AI, not general AI intelligence - can easily be used to perform a single task, so those types of jobs are most in danger," says Shellshear.
"One example is translators. Translation capabilities are becoming automated, so roles where people just translate are starting to disappear. Data retrieval roles in, let's say, call centres are also in trouble."
Shellshear says that some entry-level roles are also likely to come under threat from productivity gains, though they are more likely to fall in number rather than be eliminated altogether.
"An example could be an article clerk in a legal company where the job is to work on a case for someone more senior so that they can produce arguments and judgements.
"What we're seeing is that for a lot of junior and entry-level roles, instead of hiring 50 people, a company may only need 30, because those junior people are more efficient or those senior people are able to do that work with AI tools now, rather than relying on a junior in every situation."
On the other side of the spectrum, the research identified a number of skills and occupations that aren't only less likely to be affected by AI and automation but are actually growing in demand.
"The ones that won't be a big surprise are occupations driven by people skills," says Shellshear. "One call out, in particular, is community care and caring roles like aged care and nursing.
"The next one's management and management consulting. We're seeing many skills appearing in this area, and those skills are not being automated," he says.
"So, interpersonal and managerial skills - those are skills that we will all want to continue to develop, no matter where you are in your career.
"Unless you want to stay at the level you're at and you don't want to grow, you're going to need to build those human skills and those managerial skills."
Beyond those skills, both Shellshear and Chapman share a belief that there's no use in workers burying their heads in the sand when it comes to utilising AI. Though as Chapman notes, it's worth putting this latest technological leap into context.
"People forget that tech has been changing quickly since about the 1980s, so everyone has had to adapt to that. AI is just the next step. It feels different. It feels faster, but we've always been adapting.
"I think it's people who are willing to embrace change who are going to continue to work in their current jobs the longest.
"Adaptability is something that everyone wants from their employees, and that's what we're seeing, right now, in terms of embracing AI."
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