Is Australia caught in the crossfire of an emerging trade war?
By Dale Gillham
Is Australia ready to seize the spoils of a global trade war or risk getting caught in the crossfire?
The ongoing tariff battle between the US and China is reshaping the global economy, and Australia is right in the thick of it.
From energy and agriculture to mining and currency markets, the stakes have never been higher.
China's 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could be a jackpot for Australian exporters.
As a leading supplier, Australia is well-positioned to fill the gap.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), one of the nation's top LNG players, stands to gain big from surging Chinese demand - a potential revenue and market share bonanza, so keep a close eye on this stock.
The agricultural sector also spells opportunity. With Chinese tariffs targeting US farm goods, Australian producers could see booming exports of beef, barley, and wine.
Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) is primed to capitalise on this, thanks to its extensive agribusiness network and market expertise. The share price also looks promising, recently finding support around the key historical stronghold level of $7.
But it's not all good news.
The mining sector may face stormy waters. Tariffs could drag down China's economy, reducing its appetite for raw materials and hitting Australian giants like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).
Meanwhile, trade uncertainty is putting downward pressure on the Aussie dollar.
A weaker currency makes exports more competitive but raises import costs, squeezing household budgets and stoking inflation in an environment that is seeking the opposite right now.
Therefore, the US-China trade tensions are a double-edged sword for Australia. The question is: Can we turn the chaos into opportunity, or will we be left counting the costs?
What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?
The best-performing sectors include Information Technology and Materials, both up by more than 1%, followed by Communication Services, up under 0.5%.
The worst-performing sectors include Healthcare, down more than 2%, followed by Consumer Staples and Utilities, both down by more than 2%.
The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining, both up over 4%, followed by Iluka Resources, up over 3%.
The worst-performing stocks include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and IDP Education, both down by more than 8%, followed by Orora Limited, down over 5%.
What's next for the Australian stock market?
The All-Ordinaries Index rode a rollercoaster this week, kicking off with a dramatic selloff on Monday that wiped nearly 2% off the board.
The market was rattled by a fresh wave of trade tension as US President Trump placed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investor sentiment nosedived, gripped by fears of prolonged uncertainty.
But just when it looked bleak, buyers swooped in mid-week, lifting the index back to near Monday's opening levels.
Despite closing yesterday with a modest loss of less than 0.05%, the uptrend remains intact-though buckle up for more twists as the US-China trade drama unfolds.
Looking ahead, the Index seems poised to break through to a new all-time high, with the 9200 level firmly in sight.
Fuelling this potential surge is earnings season, now in full swing - a critical period when share prices often make their boldest moves.
Stocks that crush expectations can soar, with gains that tend to hold. But those that miss the mark risk steep declines, making strategic timing and solid research essential.
As we navigate shifting global trade dynamics and dissect company earnings, the key will be targeting growth-ready stocks and resilient sectors to stay ahead of the game.
These are exciting times - stay sharp, stay focused, and be ready to seize the next opportunity.
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