But here's the catch: this could be one of the most misleading reporting seasons we've seen in years.

Over the past six months, we've seen almost every major market driver shift.

Oil prices surged on escalating tensions in the Middle East before pulling back.

After hitting record highs, gold and silver have since corrected sharply as investors rotated back into risk assets and expectations around interest rates changed.

Copper has remained resilient thanks to demand from AI infrastructure and electrification, while inflation, interest rates and government policy continue to shape the outlook for Australian businesses.

The obvious winners should be the Materials and Energy sectors.

Higher commodity prices are expected to boost earnings, particularly for miners and energy producers.

The key won't be the results themselves, but what management says about the road ahead.

Consumer staples such as Coles and Woolworths will also be worth watching.

Rising transport and operating costs have squeezed margins, but both companies have shown they can pass many of those costs onto consumers.

With both stocks remaining in long-term uptrends, investors clearly still view them as reliable defensive plays.

Healthcare, Technology and Real Estate could tell a different story.

Many companies in these sectors have already seen their share prices retreat over the past year.

If the market has already priced in weaker earnings, even average results could be enough to spark a rally.

That brings me to what I believe is the wildcard sector this reporting season: Financials.

Australia's banks have spent months battling concerns around slowing credit growth, softer consumer spending and pressure on lending margins.

But what if the bad news is already factored into their share prices?

If results come in even slightly better than expected, the sector could quietly surprise investors.

My wildcard stock is South32 (ASX: S32).

While everyone focuses on the big iron ore names, South32's exposure to copper and other base metals gives it a unique position if industrial demand continues to strengthen.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 5%, followed by Materials, up more than 4%, and Consumer Staples, down less than 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Healthcare, down more than 4%, followed by Consumer Discretionary, down more than 3%, and Communication Services, down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Paladin Energy, up more than 21%, followed by South32 Limited, up more than 19%, and Regis Resources Limited, up more than 12%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pro Medicus, down more than 13%, followed by WiseTech Global, down more than 9%, and Xero Limited, down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index ground higher this week, finishing 0.44% higher by Thursday's close.

While the move itself wasn't spectacular, it reinforces the theme we've been discussing over the past month: the market continues to tighten, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to give much ground.

The trading range is becoming increasingly compressed, and markets rarely stay like this for long.

The difference now is that we have a potential catalyst just around the corner.

Reporting season is about to begin, and this could be the event that finally breaks the deadlock.

If the Materials sector delivers the strong earnings many are expecting and the Financials can provide support once again, the market may finally have the momentum needed to push through resistance.

Seasonally, August is often a quieter month than July.

However, markets don't always follow the averages.

July is typically the strongest month of the year for Australian shares, yet this year it has delivered a relatively subdued return of just 0.4% so far.

That raises an interesting possibility: perhaps August becomes the release valve, allowing the market to make up for lost time.

It's also worth remembering how Australia's market has compared with the rest of the world.

While many major global indices have pushed to fresh highs, the ASX has spent much of the year moving sideways, ending the first half not far from where it began.

Yet beneath the surface, there is a subtle shift taking place.

Since the March 2026 low, the All Ordinaries has posted a higher monthly close every single month.

The gains haven't been dramatic, but the consistency is difficult to ignore.

Momentum often builds quietly before everyone notices it.

That's why the weeks ahead could prove so important.

Reporting season won't just determine which companies outperform, it may also decide whether the broader market finally breaks free from the range that has contained it for weeks.

The players are in position, the stage is set, and now it's over to corporate Australia to decide whether the next act is a breakout or another period of waiting.

Next week, all eyes will be on Australia's jobs data with the release of the June labour force report.

If the unemployment rate remains at 4.4%, many headlines will declare the labour market is still strong. If it rises, attention will quickly turn to whether the Reserve Bank is less likely to raise interest rates.

But what if Australia's most-watched economic number is also its most misleading?

Think of it like driving a car using only the rear-view mirror.

Unemployment tells us what has already happened; it doesn't tell us what businesses are planning to do next. Employers rarely begin by making workers redundant.

They first stop hiring, reduce overtime, cut casual hours, delay investment and simply not replace staff who leave. Those changes can take months or years before they appear in the unemployment rate. Yet many of those forward-looking indicators are already showing signs of strain.

Official ABS data shows almost one in three Australian businesses reported lower revenue in June, while nearly half experienced higher operating costs.

More than one in four expect difficulty meeting their financial commitments over the coming month, and 15% have delayed or cancelled investment.

Official job vacancies have also fallen more than 30% from their 2022 peak, suggesting businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring.

Consumers are hardly painting the picture of a booming economy either.

Consumer confidence remains among the weakest readings in almost 50 years, while Australia recorded more than 14700 corporate external administrations in the past financial year, the highest annual number on record in raw terms.

So rather than focusing solely on next week's unemployment rate, the RBA should pay closer attention to what sits beneath the surface.

Was job growth driven by full-time or part-time positions? In May, almost 87% of new jobs created were part-time.

Did hours worked increase or fall? Is underemployment rising, suggesting more Australians have jobs but cannot secure the hours they need?

When the numbers come out next week, I wouldn't be surprised if the unemployment rate remains around current levels, but that's not the number I'll be watching.

The real test will be whether Australia is creating quality, full-time jobs, Australians are working more hours and if underemployment continues to rise.

If the headline remains strong while those underlying measures deteriorate, it suggests the labour market is considerably weaker than the unemployment rate implies.

For the sake of Australian households and businesses, I hope the Reserve Bank looks beyond the headline figure. Monetary policy shouldn't be driven by one lagging statistic when so many forward-looking indicators are telling a very different story.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary, up more than 2%, followed by Communication Services and Financials, both up more than 1%.

The worst-performing sectors include Consumer Staples, down more than 2%, followed by Information Technology and Real Estate, both down more than 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include AMP Limited, up more than 14%, followed by James Hardie Industries, up more than 7% and SEEK Limited, up more than 6%.

The worst-performing stocks include Paladin Energy, down more than 8%, followed by Capricorn Metals, down more than 6% and Xero Limited, down more than 5%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All Ordinaries Index delivered another quietly bullish performance, closing around 0.37% higher as of Thursday.

While that gain may seem modest, an old market saying explains why this week was more important than it first appears: "Professionals close the market." It's not where the market trades during the week that matters most, it's where the big money chooses to leave it at the close.

Last week, I highlighted 9050 and 8900 as the market's key battleground levels.

Since June 19, buyers have repeatedly tested 9050 but have been unable to secure a weekly close above it. This week followed the same pattern. The All Ords traded above 9050 before sellers stepped in, pushing the index back below resistance by Thursday's close. That's now four consecutive weeks where buyers have challenged this level without breaking it.

At first glance, many technical analysts would view that as bearish, but there's another side to the story.

Despite repeated selling, buyers haven't surrendered ground. For the past month, the market has consistently closed near 9050 rather than falling back towards 8900.

That tells me buying demand remains strong enough to absorb the selling pressure.

Based on technical analysis, the longer a market can hold beneath a major resistance level without retreating, the greater the probability it will eventually break through.

If that happens, the next move higher could be swift. That's why now is the time to prepare rather than react. Once this month-long battle finally produces a winner, investors may have very little time to position themselves.

There are also encouraging signs beneath the surface.

The XFL Index, which tracks Australia's 20 largest listed companies, has already broken to new highs while the All Ordinaries continues to lag. Large-cap stocks often lead the broader market, suggesting the All Ords may simply be in the final stages of catching up.

The professionals will cast the deciding vote again this week. If they can finally close the market above 9050, it could be the signal that the next leg of the bull market has begun.

Although Cuscal has a 60-year operating history, it has been listed on the ASX for only a short time and, in that time, has largely been ignored.

At least, that is, until we put it on the Buy List in March, after which the company made an acquisition at an astonishingly cheap price.

Cuscal operates a toll for electronic payments, collecting a fixed fee for transactions made across multiple payment rails.

If you pay by tapping your phone, credit card, or through EFTPOS or the Osko payment platform, there's a decent chance that Cuscal processed some of those payments.

Why every tap and subscription counts

There are three reasons for buying the stock, current price notwithstanding.

One is that the volume of transactions across the New Payments Platform, which provides instant, direct-to-account settlements, is growing explosively.

Consumers now pay for small purchases like coffee and train rides with a tap rather than with cash. This generates additional fee income for Cuscal.

For another reason, thank Netflix.

Streaming services such as Spotify and Amazon have been credited with changing consumer behaviour, from paying large annual sums to smaller, more frequent monthly subscriptions.

Everything from TV, music, insurance, toilet paper and telecoms is now largely paid by monthly subscriptions.

Splitting payments into 12 neat amounts is manna for Cuscal, as it generates 12 times the fees for the same annual payment.

The RBA reports that between 2013 and 2023, the number of payments per person rose from 330 to 730. That figure is no doubt higher today.

The third reason for buying the stock is the most compelling because it also confounds.

The acquisition that could transform earnings

Last year, Cuscal acquired Indue, a smaller competitor that has been in its crosshairs for years.

Indue offers a service like Cuscal's, only it leases payment rails and connections.

Cuscal can now migrate all of Indue's revenues that ran through leased infrastructure to its own. Doing so will make a dollar of revenue at Indue even more valuable.

The acquisition should significantly lift earnings, but not immediately.

First, Cuscal needs to integrate transactions into its own payment system by certifying payment paths, migrating bank cards and meeting reporting and security requirements. This is expected to take two to three years and cost $25-$30 million upfront.

Cuscal also needs to wait for lease terms to expire before Indue's transactions are moved over.

These are for a maximum of three years.

For the first year or two after the acquisition, the benefits of the purchase won't show and the cost of completing it may hide transaction growth.

After year three, though, earnings should explode.

A near-monopoly at a bargain price

Following the purchase of Indue, Cuscal recently agreed to buy Paymark, New Zealand's original EFTPOS network, from French processing business Worldline for $27 million.

The deal is expected to complete by June 30.

Paymark was New Zealand's first EFTPOS provider.

As with Cuscal, it operates the switch that routes payment authorisations between merchants, acquiring banks and card issuers.

Every time a Kiwi taps to pay at a supermarket or petrol station, there's a good chance it's going through Paymark's infrastructure.

The business processes more than 1.5 billion transactions a year and serves all four major NZ banks alongside merchants in every industry.

Around 75% of NZ merchants are connected to the Paymark network. This is not a niche business, it's a core part of the national payments infrastructure.

How Cuscal struck its best deal yet

Paymark was sold by the banks to French group Ingenico for NZ$190 million in 2018. Worldline then absorbed Ingenico in 2020.

So, how did a sought-after quality business end up as a distressed asset? Because Worldline itself is in financial strife.

Paymark was in the firing line because it was due to absorb $21 million in capital expenditure that Cuscal will now take on. This is what happens when a distressed seller meets a patient buyer.

Paymark is expected to generate A$5.4 million net profit next year, implying that Cuscal is paying just five times earnings for a near-monopoly asset with guaranteed transaction growth ahead.

For comparison, the Indue acquisition was struck at 25 times earnings.

Paymark won't provide the same opportunities for scale, but the capital project will end by 2030.

After that, the business will generate a reliable, growing stream of earnings. The return on capital on the purchase price will likely be more than 20%.

To fund the deal, Cuscal is raising A$33 million in new equity, the bulk of which is a fully underwritten institutional placement priced at A$4 per share.

This results in about 7.5 million new shares, equivalent to about 3.9% of existing shares on issue. The dilution is modest.

There are no heroic assumptions needed here.

These kinds of assets, at this sort of price, are rare. It is the best deal we've seen for a while.

That said, Cuscal is a better-than-average business but is not exceptional.

It must carry a huge capital buffer that stifles returns, and the big banks remain formidable competitors.

But a second sensible acquisition suggests that, in upgrading the stock in March, we may have undercooked growth potential and underestimated management.

So far, this has been a masterclass in capital allocation. With the share price up 21% since, we're downgrading to HOLD.

It might sound impossible, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity the oil market delivered earlier this year, and the big question now is: could this be your second chance?

When conflict erupted in the Middle East, crude oil exploded more than 70% in just six trading days.

That means a $7000 investment, managed with a professional 5% stop-loss, had the potential to grow to more than $100,000.

Opportunities like that don't come around often, but when they do, they can completely change your life.

So, here's why I'm talking to you about oil today.

History shows that whenever major conflicts threaten global oil supplies, crude has a habit of making rapid moves towards US$100 to US$110 a barrel.

We saw it during the 2008 commodity boom, again in 2011-12 during the Arab Spring and sanctions on Iran, and in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Right now, oil has almost completely erased its recent war rally and is trading back near US$70 a barrel.

Beneath the surface, many of the same risks that triggered the last explosive move are starting to build again.

This week, President Trump declared the ceasefire arrangement with Iran effectively over after renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States responded with strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, while reports suggest Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's oil exports pass, could become a future military target.

Unsurprisingly, traders immediately began pricing in the increased geopolitical risk.

At the same time, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains near its lowest level since the early 1980s, leaving less emergency supply available if disruptions worsen.

Russia is also continuing to battle refinery disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure, keeping global supply far tighter than many investors realise.

Now, none of this means oil is guaranteed to surge back to US$100.

Markets never make promises, but if you're serious about finding high-probability opportunities before everyone else, this is one market that deserves to be on your radar.

The biggest mistake isn't missing the first rally, it's watching the next one unfold while you're still thinking about the last.

Keep oil on your watchlist and watch the chart.

Let price confirm the story before risking your hard-earned money and remember this: earlier this year, the entire move happened in less than a week. If another opportunity emerges, time won't be your friend.

The traders who are prepared before the move starts are usually the ones who benefit the most.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 4%, followed by Consumer Discretionary, up more than 2% and Information Technology, up more than 1.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Materials, down more than 6%, followed by Real Estate, down more than 1.5% and Industrials, down more than 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Santos Limited, up more than 7%, followed by ASX Limited and Woodside Energy, both up more than 5%.

The worst-performing stocks include Genesis Minerals, down more than 13%, followed by Evolution Mining, down more than 12% and Pilbara Minerals, down more than 11%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

This week, the All Ordinaries Index slipped just under 1% by Thursday's close, with the market once again failing to break through the stubborn 9000-point level.

In fact, this marks the third consecutive week that the index has tested this resistance without success.

The week began on a positive note, but buying momentum gradually faded, with the market once again finding support around the 8900 level.

It's become a familiar pattern over recent weeks: up one day, down the next, with neither buyers nor sellers able to take decisive control.

What we're seeing is a market becoming increasingly compressed.

The trading range continues to tighten, and history tells us that periods like this are often followed by a meaningful move in one direction. The question now is simply which side wins.

Sector performance continues to tell a very different story from the headline index. Materials endured a difficult week, while Energy emerged as the clear standout.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East, with the US and Iran once again exchanging blows, pushed oil prices higher and reignited interest in energy stocks.

As we've seen throughout the past year, geopolitical events can quickly reshape sector leadership, creating opportunities for some industries while weighing heavily on others.

With little sign that these tensions will ease in the near term, investors should expect volatility to remain elevated. It's also likely we'll continue to see an uneven market where some sectors thrive while others struggle.

If you're investing with a shorter- to medium-term outlook, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio.

Rather than focusing solely on the direction of the overall market, consider which sectors have historically benefited from higher oil prices, rising inflation and periods of geopolitical uncertainty. In markets like these, it's often sector selection, not just market direction, that makes the biggest difference.

Over the past few years, we've watched stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies move on political statements, viral social media posts and unexpected geopolitical events that had little to do with company fundamentals.

That's forcing investors to rethink one of the oldest assumptions in finance: that prices always reflect value.

Take Donald Trump, for example.

His latest financial disclosure revealed more than US$1.4 billion in income from his family's cryptocurrency ventures during 2025, making digital assets his largest reported source of income.

At the same time, his administration has adopted a far more crypto-friendly stance than previous governments.

Whether the two are connected isn't the point.

The reality is that when influential figures have significant financial exposure to an asset class and the ability to shape policy and investor sentiment, markets become far more difficult for ordinary investors to navigate.

The same questions are being asked in commodity markets.

Earlier this year, U.S. authorities began investigating more than US$2.6 billion worth of unusually timed oil trades placed shortly before major announcements relating to Iran and the Middle East.

Those announcements sent oil prices sharply lower, leaving many wondering whether some participants knew more than the rest of the market.

Then there's social media.

A single post from Elon Musk has repeatedly moved cryptocurrencies, AI stocks and even his own companies within minutes.

Algorithms now react faster than humans can read the headline, amplifying moves long before most retail investors have had time to think.

This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's simply the reality of modern financial markets.

Politics, billionaires, central banks and algorithms all influence markets.

The game has become faster, noisier and, at times, less connected to underlying business fundamentals.

So how do individual investors compete?

Not by trying to predict the next tweet or political announcement.

Instead, they need to focus on these three things.

1. Follow price before opinion

If the market isn't behaving the way the fundamentals suggest it should, respect the price action.

Markets can remain irrational far longer than most investors expect.

2. Wait for confirmation

Chasing the first move after a headline is often when emotions are highest, and risk is greatest.

Patience frequently delivers a better entry and a clearer picture.

3. Manage risk relentlessly

You can't control the next geopolitical event, a surprise policy announcement, or a viral social media post.

You can, however, control your position size, your stop-loss and whether you choose to participate at all.

The biggest edge investors have today isn't having more information, given that everyone receives breaking news within seconds.

It's having the discipline to ignore the noise until the odds are genuinely in your favour.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Healthcare and Information Technology, both up more than 2%, followed by Energy, up more than 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Utilities, down more than 4%, followed by Real Estate, down more than 3% and Consumer Staples, down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Life360, up more than 9.15%, followed by Telix Pharmaceuticals, up more than 12% and Pro Medicus, up more than 9%.

The worst-performing stocks include BlueScope Steel, down more than 9%, followed by Stockland and APA Group, both down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index drifted lower again this week, finishing with a modest 0.37% loss on Thursday.

It looked like the market was set for a positive week after a promising start.

But sellers returned later in the week, erasing those gains and keeping the index under pressure.

Healthcare and Information Technology were the standout performers, suggesting investors are beginning to search for value in sectors that have lagged for some time.

While the broader market remains subdued, this rotation is another reminder that opportunities still exist, even when the index itself isn't doing much.

From a technical perspective, the All Ords is becoming increasingly interesting.

Price action continues to compress into a tighter range, something that often precedes a meaningful breakout.

Since earlier this year, we've seen a pattern of lower highs and higher lows develop, signalling not only indecision but also an intense battle between buyers and sellers.

Markets simply can't remain compressed forever. Eventually, one side wins.

If this pattern continues, I expect strong support around the 8800 level, with resistance sitting near 9000.

The narrowing range means that when the breakout does come, it could be quite decisive.

At this stage, I still believe the higher probability is to the upside, but there are competing forces at play.

Recent reports of increased short selling in the banking sector suggest some investors are betting on further weakness.

If they're right, Financials could weigh heavily on the broader market.

On the other hand, the Materials sector continues to attract investment flows as demand for commodities remains strong.

So, the battle lines are drawn.

Will Financials drag the market lower, or will Materials provide enough strength to lift the market higher?

Right now, Australia's share market is largely driven by these two heavyweight sectors, while many others are caught in the crossfire.

That may not be such a bad thing, though, as some of those overlooked sectors are quietly starting to recover.

Good luck and good trading.

Australians tend to back what they know.

It is one of the reasons big bank shares are a staple of so many portfolios.

For much of the past two decades, that instinct has been rewarded. Even as international investing has become more common, many Australian portfolios remain heavily anchored to the local market.

The debate around home bias is not really about geography. It is about opportunity.

Home bias is not uniquely Australian. However, it has gradually declined across many major pension markets over the past decade.

As research from the Thinking Ahead Institute shows, Australia continues to maintain one of the highest allocations to domestic shares in the developed world.

That would be less remarkable if Australia occupied a similarly large share of global equity markets.

It does not.

Australia represents around 2% of global equity market value, yet Australian investors continue to allocate a disproportionately large share of their portfolios locally.

The more interesting question is not why Australians own so many Australian shares. It is why they expect a market representing 2% of global equity value to provide most of their equity exposure.

Behavioural finance helps explain why.

Daniel Kahneman's work showed that investors often mistake familiarity for safety. Home bias is one manifestation of that tendency.

It should be said that home bias is not the same as a criticism of Australian companies.

Australia remains home to some of the world's strongest banking franchises, globally significant resource companies and a dividend culture that is rare among developed markets.

But the reality is that the global economy has evolved far more rapidly than the composition of the Australian share market.

Financials and materials have dominated the ASX for decades and, as at 31 May 2026, still accounted for more around 50% of the market.

By comparison, those sectors make up less than 18% of the MSCI World ex Australia Index.

For investors, that has real consequences.

Many Australians who believe they are diversified because they own a broad Australian share market fund are often making a much larger bet on banks and resources than they realise.

If housing, credit growth or commodity prices struggle, a significant portion of their portfolio would be exposed to the same risks at the same time.

In contrast, the industries driving global market returns sit outside Australia's traditional strengths.

Technology, healthcare and advanced manufacturing have become larger parts of the global economy, while banks and resources continue to dominate the local market.

The solution is not abandoning Australia. It is recognising that diversification is about more than geography.

It may mean complementing Australia's strengths in banks and resources with exposure to global healthcare leaders, financially strong international companies, emerging markets or smaller companies that operate in very different parts of the economy.

For much of the past decade, global equity returns were increasingly driven by a handful of large US technology companies.

Their dominance was so significant that many investors came to treat international investing and US technology as effectively the same thing.

But that is becoming less true. Strong returns are no longer coming from just a handful of US technology companies.

So far in 2026, value equities, emerging markets and growth equities have all outperformed both the ASX 200 and the Magnificent Seven.

For many years, investors could reasonably point to the practical barriers of investing internationally. Accessing global markets often meant expensive managed funds, high fees and limited transparency.

Today, those barriers have largely disappeared thanks to the adoption of ETFs.

Investors can access international quality companies, global healthcare leaders or thousands of emerging market companies as easily as they can buy an Australian bank or miner.

The challenge is no longer access. It is allocation.

Home bias made sense when the Australian market looked more like the global economy. It makes less sense as the gap between the two continues to widen.

Stagflation is every investor's nightmare.

Growth slows, consumers cut spending, unemployment rises, yet prices remain stubbornly high.

Normally, when economies weaken, inflation falls, but in a stagflation environment, both problems occur simultaneously.

While Australia isn't facing a full-blown 1970s-style stagflation crisis, the warning signs are becoming harder to ignore.

Inflation remains above the RBA's target range, unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, productivity growth is weak and economic growth continues to slow under the weight of higher interest rates.

For many Australians, it feels like the worst of both worlds.

Wage growth is struggling to keep pace with living costs, households are tightening their belts, and businesses are battling rising expenses, but investors should remember one important lesson from history: even in difficult economic environments, some sectors thrive.

During the stagflation era of the 1970s, many of the market's biggest winners were not the exciting growth stocks of the day.

Instead, investors flocked to businesses that controlled essential resources, produced energy, supplied critical infrastructure or sold products people simply could not live without.

That same playbook may be worth considering today.

While giants like BHP and Rio Tinto remain popular choices, paying close attention to companies such as Lynas Rare Earths, Genesis Minerals, Paladin Energy, IGO and APA Group could be where future growth lies.

The common thread is simple.

These businesses are tied to commodities, energy security, infrastructure and essential services.

Many possess something incredibly valuable during periods of economic stress: pricing power.

When costs rise, they often pass those increases on to customers rather than absorb the pain themselves.

That is why the goal in a stagflation environment is not necessarily to find the cheapest stocks, it is to find the strongest businesses.

Look for companies with robust cash flow, manageable debt, reliable dividends, dominant market positions and products that remain in demand regardless of economic conditions.

Stagflation can be brutal for weak businesses, but for investors willing to adapt, it can also create some of the biggest opportunities of the cycle.

The winners of the next bull market may not be the same companies that dominated the last one.

In fact, if stagflation continues to gain a foothold, the biggest profits could come from owning the businesses that keep the economy running even as everything else slows.

Best and worst-performing sectors this week

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, both up more than 3%, followed by Consumer Staples, up more than 2%.

The worst-performing sectors include Materials and Energy, both down more than 4%, followed by Information Technology, down more than 3%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include ResMed Inc., up more than 9%, followed by Ramsay Health Care and Telix Pharmaceuticals, both up more than 8%.

The worst-performing stocks include WiseTech Global, down more than 14%, followed by Greatland Resources, down more than 12% and Genesis Minerals, down more than 10%.

What's next for the ASX and the Australian share market?

The All Ordinaries Index continued its recent pullback this week, finishing down 1% by Thursday's close.

While the decline itself was relatively modest, it reinforces the view that the market remains firmly range-bound between 8800 and 9200 points.

Until buyers or sellers decisively break this range, it is difficult to build a strong case for the next major directional move.

Despite lower oil prices providing some relief, weakness in the Materials and Energy sectors weighed heavily on the broader market.

Given that these sectors have done much of the heavy lifting over the past year, a period of consolidation should not come as a surprise.

What is more interesting, however, is where investor capital appears to be flowing.

Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Consumer Staples have begun to attract increased attention as investors seek more defensive opportunities and earnings stability.

It serves as an important reminder that the headline index only tells part of the story.

While the All Ords may appear stuck in neutral, several sectors are quietly carving out their own trends beneath the surface.

In many respects, there are markets within markets.

While some areas continue to struggle, others are steadily building momentum despite the broader index moving sideways.

From a broader perspective, Australia's share market has been somewhat underwhelming over the past year, particularly when compared to the technology-driven gains seen overseas.

Yet every technological revolution still relies on real-world inputs.

Critical minerals, energy resources, infrastructure and industrial materials remain the foundation upon which tomorrow's technologies are built.

At some point, investor attention is likely to return to the companies producing those essential resources.

When it does, Australia's market could once again find itself in the global spotlight.

Until then, patience, discipline and careful stock selection remain critical.

The index may be moving sideways, but opportunities continue to emerge for investors willing to look beneath the surface.

The space economy is expanding quickly beyond rockets into defence, energy infrastructure and data services which are underpinning commercial enterprises.

The popularity of the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) illustrates the attraction for investors, including Australia's richest person, Gina Rinehart, who has backed Elon Musk's IPO with more than US$1 billion.

The big news in markets this month wasn't just the SpaceX IPO, but the phenomenal demand for it, including from Gina Rinehart, who hit the headlines in The Wall Street Journal when the paper revealed Australia's richest person had invested over US$1 billion in the SpaceX IPO.

That news was the most read story in The Wall Street Journal the day it was published.

Such is the desire to know how the rich are investing.

Rinehart is betting on founder Elon Musk's vision to transform the space economy into a profitable commercial enterprise.

Her stake in SpaceX is the single largest investment outside of iron ore made by her private company, Hancock Prospecting.

Like many others, Rinehart is betting that investing in space isn't just about launching rockets, but an expected growth in the space economy.

The forces driving the space economy boom

Space companies are benefitting from a combination of several factors including rising commercial demand for communications services and increased government spending, including rising defence investment in early warning, counterspace systems and secure satellite communications.

Global government space spending, for example, reached US$137.4 billion in 2025, and for the first time, defence-driven space spending accounted for 54% (US$73.5 billion) of that total, officially outpacing civilian space budgets, such as NASA's.

The modern space age today is also being defined by commercial demand and economic infrastructure.

Commercial activity now accounts for roughly 70% of global orbital launches, up from 25% a decade ago, as satellite launch costs fall.

Over the past 60 years, the cost of reaching Low Earth Orbit has fallen approximately 200 times, to roughly US$1000 per kilogram today from US$400,000 per kilogram.

This collapse in launch economics is the single biggest structural change in the industry encouraging commercial enterprise.

Internet connectivity, for example, is burgeoning as a business enterprise.

Active satellites in orbit, for example, have grown from around 1000 in 2010 to over 12,000 in 2025, with estimates approaching 100,000 by 2030 as broadband constellations such as Starlink and Amazon Leo deploy satellites to keep us connected.

From Starlink and satellite internet to defence: Where the money is being made

Increasingly, satellites are where the space economy generates revenue, with over half of today's space market tied to satellites providing infrastructure and connectivity.

Falling launch costs and reusable rocket technology have enabled the rapid deployment of satellites that deliver broadband, navigation, Earth observation, and secure communications at scale.

This is helping push the growth of the global space economy, which is projected to surpass US$1 trillion by 2034.

Apart from satellite broadband, defence modernisation and emerging applications such as orbital computing are underpinning commercial opportunities.

The satellite broadband market alone is forecast to grow from US$22 billion in 2025 to US$100 billion by 2035, driven by household connectivity, enterprise backhaul, mobility, and military applications.

Government spending too is rising.

The US Space Force budget request for FY27, for example, is approximately US$71 billion, more than double the FY25 budget, with proposed programs such as Golden Dome adding a long duration government spending which provides a durable demand floor for the sector.

How everyday investors can access the space economy

With SpaceX raising the profile of the space economy, it's not just Gina Rinehart that is keen.

Investors are increasingly seeking access to companies leading reusable launch technology, satellite networks, mission-critical components, including space exploration.

Australian investors can invest in these ground-breaking companies directly, such as many did in the SpaceX IPO, or diversify their investments though a space technology ETF listed on the ASX such as the Global X Space Tech ETF (MOON).

For investors who missed the SpaceX IPO or were priced out by high minimums and limited share availability, an ETF offers a more practical entry point, spreading exposure across the broader space economy rather than concentrating a bet on a single name.

The ETF tracks the performance of companies driving growth and commercialisation of the global space economy.

MOON holds a diversified mix of companies across the space value chain, including satellite operators, launch technology providers, defence-linked space contractors, and the manufacturers of mission-critical components that make it all work.

Since its ASX listing on June 11, 2026, MOON attracted over A$5 million in flows within its first five trading days, reflecting strong early investor appetite for dedicated space economy exposure.

Much like railroads in the 19th century, the internet in the 1990s, and AI in the 2020s, space infrastructure could define the 2030s as a foundation for the next phase of the global economy and investors who get in earlier could see the greatest rewards.

As with all investments, this fund has risks - see the PDS for more information.

This fund may expose investors to currency risk, sector risk, concentration risk, and/or market risk.

Why you should buy A O Smith shares? 

A O Smith (NYSE:AOS) is the clear market leader in the stable, oligopolistic US water heater industry, where the top three players control over 90% of both residential and commercial markets and AOS holds the #1 position in each (36% residential, 52% commercial).

Crucially, around 85% of demand is non-discretionary replacement of old units on about a 15 year cycle, giving the business a durable, recurring revenue base that is far less cyclical than its construction exposed peers.

The company converts close to 100% of earnings into free cash flow, carries no debt on its balance sheet, generates about a 34% return on invested capital, and is a dividend Aristocrat that has consistently returned the bulk of its cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

The appeal today is that you can buy this quality franchise at a depressed price.

The weakness driving this is cyclical, not structural. US water heater volumes have had their slowest start to a year since COVID, but AOS has held onto its market share throughout. That leaves it well placed to benefit once volumes start to recover.

What does A O Smith (NYSE:AOS) do?

Founded in 1874 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, AOS is a manufacturer of both residential and commercial water heaters and boilers.

It also supplies water treatment and purification products in the Asian market. The company employs approximately 11,500 people at operations in the United States, Europe and Asia.

Growth outlook for A O Smith shares

The investment case rests on the cyclical US water heater slowdown reversing, with a long replacement cycle and steady share underpinning a return to low-single-digit organic sales growth.

Near-term headwinds are well flagged: weaker US residential volumes and higher steel and energy costs, which management is offsetting with a 4-7% price hike from mid-May, supporting a recovery in the second half of the year.

The struggling China business is now less than 10% of group earnings (down from 25% in 2019) and management is exploring strategic options, including a likely exit, which should remove a long standing drag and a key risk to the story.

We expect the disciplined capital allocation to continue, with approximately 100% cash conversion and most free cash flow returned via dividends and buybacks.

Returns

At the current price of $57 AOS trades on roughly 15x FY26 earnings, which is close to its 10-year trough of 14x.

Applying a 14x EV/EBIT  (enterprise value/earnings before interest and taxes) multiple (broadly in line with the long-term average) points to a fair value of around $73 per share, implying meaningful upside from here.

Even with no re-rate or growth, the current earnings yield of about 7%, which gets consistently returned to shareholders, is a strong base.

In a downside scenario applying the COVID low EV/Sales multiple, the implied value sits in the high $40s, leaving the risk/reward skewed favourably at today's depressed price.

While the political debate will focus on immigration, culture and social issues, investors may be looking at something entirely different.

Their superannuation balances.

Most Australians don't realise that some of the largest holdings inside their super funds are mining and energy companies.

Giants like BHP and Rio Tinto feature heavily across the industry, meaning the fortunes of millions of Australians are directly linked to the performance of the resources sector whether they actively invest or not.

That is what makes Hanson's economic message so interesting.

Her argument is that Australia has spent too long increasing regulation and focusing on redistribution while productivity growth has stalled.

Instead, she wants to make it easier for companies to invest, build projects, employ workers and develop Australia's vast natural resources.

That is one reason Hanson has developed a close relationship with mining billionaire Gina Rinehart, whom she has publicly acknowledged as a source of policy ideas.

The bigger issue, however, is productivity.

Australia's productivity growth has been weak for years, yet productivity remains one of the most important drivers of rising wages, company profits and long-term living standards.

Hanson is tapping into a growing belief that Australia needs to focus less on dividing wealth and more on creating it by producing more, building more and extracting greater value from the resources it already owns.

For investors, the question is simple.

What happens if governments become more supportive of the industries that generate some of Australia's largest profits? Historically, the answer has been higher share prices.

The reality is that markets don't care whether a policy is popular.

They care whether it increases profits and if a more mining-friendly and business-friendly Australia leads to higher earnings for some of the country's largest companies, investors will likely reward them accordingly and because those same companies are major holdings in Australia's superannuation system, the benefits could extend far beyond shareholders and into the retirement savings of millions of Australians.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 3%, followed by Financials, up more than 1.5% and Healthcare, up under 1.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Energy, down more than 7%, followed by Utilities, down more than 2% and Communication Services, down more than 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Regis Resources, up more than 21%, followed by Genesis Minerals and Greatland Resources, both up more than 16%.

The worst-performing stocks include Santos Limited, down more than 9%, followed by Whitehaven Coal and Ampol, both down more than 8%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All-Ordinaries Index delivered a strong performance this week, rising almost 1.5% by Thursday's close and putting the market firmly back on the front foot.

More importantly, buyers have once again pushed the index towards the critical 9200 level, a barrier that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

With momentum continuing to build, there is growing evidence that this latest attempt may be different.

The recovery was driven by the market's two most influential sectors, Financials and Materials, both of which bounced strongly and provided the foundation for the broader rally.

Equally encouraging was the continued strength in Real Estate.

After spending much of the past year lagging behind, the sector has quietly become one of the market's standout performers over the past month despite generally weak conditions across the wider market.

If interest rate expectations continue to move lower, Real Estate could become a key driver of the next rise.

Investor sentiment was also supported by ceasefire developments in the Middle East.

As tensions eased, oil prices fell sharply, leading the Energy sector to decline more than 7% for the week.

While this hurt energy stocks, lower oil prices are generally welcomed by the broader market as they reduce inflation pressures, lower business costs and improve the outlook for interest rates.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.

However, markets interpreted comments from the Fed Chair as relatively hawkish, suggesting rate cuts may not arrive as quickly as investors had hoped.

This weighed on US markets and tempered expectations for near-term monetary easing.

Australia appears to be on a different path.

Inflation pressures continue to ease, economic growth remains subdued and expectations are building that the RBA could begin lowering rates later this year or early next year.

If that scenario unfolds, it will provide a meaningful tailwind for both businesses and investors.

For much of the past year, the Australian market has played second fiddle to its global counterparts.

However, with a potential rate-cutting cycle approaching and commodity markets showing renewed momentum, don't be surprised if Australia emerges as one of the strongest-performing major markets over the year ahead.

Hyperscalers are ramping up power use at pace, with Goldman Sachs forecasting data centre electricity demand to grow 32% a year to 2030.

This, including economies of scale in token production, will drive up electricity demand from data centres by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% over the same period, a sharp increase in energy demand that is transforming the growth outlook in several essential infrastructure sectors.

AI is delivering a dual benefit to utility infrastructure.

On the revenue side, surging AI-driven energy demand is filling capacity and lifting volumes through existing networks; on the cost side, AI-enabled optimisation is improving operational efficiency and reducing waste.

Together, we believe these trends may support stronger cash flow growth and improve returns on invested capital - a combination that is rare in a sector historically valued for stability rather than growth.

Why NextEra is in the sweet spot

NextEra (NYSE: NEE), the US electric utility that sits at the intersection of power demand growth and renewable build-out, offers an excellent example.

NextEra, the largest renewable energy producer in the US, is among the most direct beneficiaries of the AI hyperscaler build-out.

Its subsidiary Florida Power and Light already has over 20GW of large load enquiries in Florida, with 9GW of additional data centre demand at an advanced stage of development.

At the portfolio level, NextEra has announced plans to develop multiple data centre campuses totalling 15GW by 2035, with an upside case of 30GW.

Big tech partnerships are accelerating growth

Beyond the demand uplift, NextEra has entered a strategic partnership with Google to deploy AI tools - including REWIRE - to modernise FPL's grid operations, improve reliability, and reduce costs.

NextEra has also agreed with Google to recommission the recently retired Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa under a 25-year contract, underwriting the economics of the restart and supporting Google's cloud and AI infrastructure in the region.

The combination of surging demand, long-duration contracted revenue, and AI-driven operational improvement positions NextEra as a textbook example of the dual-benefit thesis - and its leadership in renewable energy places it at the forefront of the clean power sourcing that hyperscalers are increasingly required to demonstrate.

On May 18, NextEra Energy announced that it will acquire Dominion Energy in an approximately US$67 billion merger, creating the world's largest regulated electric utility company with a customer base of approximately 10 million.

If approved, the combined entity would also become the third-largest energy company in the US, behind only ExxonMobil and Chevron.

For Essential Infrastructure investors, this transaction underscores the scale of capital and operational capability required to meet the multi-decade electricity demand buildout, and the premium that strategic acquirers are willing to pay for high-quality regulated utility assets positioned at the centre of that theme.

Pick up the July issue of Money for Tom Watson's deep dive into data centres, from investment opportunities to the environmental cost.

Australian investors are once again being reminded that the global equity market is evolving faster than many local portfolios.

While debates in Australia continue to centre on interest rates, dividends and cost-of-living pressures, the biggest story in global markets has been the rapid rise of semiconductor champions.

And few embody that shift more clearly than Samsung Electronics.

Now firmly among the world's largest companies, Samsung has recently moved into the top tier of global market capitalisation rankings, even briefly surpassing Meta.

It is an extraordinary turnaround for a business that, not long ago, was trading at levels many investors would have considered deeply undervalued.

The shift most portfolios are missing

This is not simply a story about one company outperforming.

It reflects a deeper structural change in the global economy, one being driven by artificial intelligence, data infrastructure and the sustained demand for advanced memory and computing power.

Samsung sits at the centre of that transformation.

The company is one of the world's largest producers of memory chips, including DRAM and NAND, which are essential to AI workloads, cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing.

As AI adoption accelerates, demand for these components has surged, tightening supply and driving a powerful earnings recovery for semiconductor manufacturers.

In turn, investors have re-rated these companies, recognising their strategic importance in what is quickly becoming a new industrial revolution.

In our view this is a structural shift in demand rather than another turn of the memory cycle, and that distinction is what justifies the re-rating.

Samsung's scale, diversification and technological leadership make it one of the most significant of these players.

Its ability to straddle both memory and logic chips, combined with its vertical integration across consumer electronics, provides a level of resilience and optionality that few competitors can match.

The stock investors ignored, then chased

What makes Samsung's story even more compelling, however, is how recently the market seemed to underappreciate it.

Legendary investor Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) recently captured this dynamic succinctly.

He wrote: "Some stocks are backed by businesses so good that the time to buy is defined by a simple, recurring rule. Samsung Electronics is the belle of the ball these days.

"Just last year, however, it traded extensively at tangible book value. When Samsung Electronics stock hits tangible book value per share, buy it. Period. No more analysis needed."

This observation speaks to a broader truth about markets.

Even companies with world-class assets and dominant market positions can become mispriced, particularly in sectors perceived as cyclical.

Semiconductor stocks, including Samsung, have historically been subject to sharp swings in sentiment tied to inventory cycles and pricing pressure.

Why this boom could last longer

Yet the AI-driven demand cycle appears fundamentally different.

Unlike previous upcycles, which were often driven by consumer electronics or PC refreshes, today's demand is anchored in structural investment.

Hyperscale data centres, AI training clusters and sovereign digital infrastructure projects require vast and sustained volumes of high-performance memory.

This creates a more durable and visible demand profile, which in turn supports higher valuations over time.

Global indices have been propelled by companies at the forefront of AI and digital infrastructure, while the ASX has struggled to keep pace.

This is not due to a lack of quality among Australian companies, but rather the composition of the market itself. Australia simply does not have a listed semiconductor ecosystem comparable to those overseas.

Avoid missing the next boom

As a result, investors with a strong home bias risk missing out on one of the most powerful wealth-creation cycles of our time.

Samsung's ascent into the world's top echelon of companies underscores this point. It is not just a corporate success story.

It's a signal. Capital is increasingly rewarding businesses that enable and scale the digital economy. Those that sit outside this ecosystem, no matter how stable or income-generating, may struggle to deliver comparable growth.

This does not mean investors should abandon domestic equities. Rather, it highlights the importance of diversification and global exposure.

Accessing sectors such as semiconductors, AI infrastructure and advanced computing is becoming essential for portfolios aiming to capture long-term capital growth.

How to position for the next wave

Importantly, the opportunity is still evolving.

AI adoption remains in its early stages, and the buildout of supporting infrastructure is likely to continue for years.

Supply constraints, technological complexity and rising demand all suggest that companies like Samsung could remain at the centre of this growth cycle for some time.

The lesson from Samsung's rise is clear.

Markets can change quickly, and leadership can shift in unexpected ways. Investors who focus too narrowly on traditional sectors risk overlooking the businesses shaping the future.

The question is no longer whether companies like Samsung deserve their place among the world's largest.

The real question is whether investors are adequately positioned to benefit from what comes next.

For investors seeking exposure to this theme, the Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF (GXAI), which includes Samsung, provides a diversified way to access the companies underpinning the AI ecosystem.

It is no coincidence that global capital has flowed aggressively into this segment of the market.

Semiconductor firms are no longer viewed as purely cyclical manufacturers.

They are increasingly seen as foundational infrastructure providers, the picks and shovels of the digital economy.

After one of its sharpest falls in recent years, about half of Bitcoin holders are sitting on a loss.

Millions who were told crypto was the future are now watching their investment trade below what they paid. That is easy to accept when prices are rising, much harder when they are not.

If enough investors start questioning the story, confidence can quickly turn to panic. And if that happens, the risk of a broader sell-off rises.

A sell-off without a scandal

Last week, Bitcoin recorded its worst weekly decline since the collapse of FTX in 2022. This time, there was no major fraud, no exchange failure and no obvious trigger. The market simply sold off.

That alone should give investors pause.

For years, crypto advocates pitched Bitcoin as digital gold, a hedge when inflation rises or uncertainty hits. But during the latest bout of geopolitical tension, gold moved higher while Bitcoin fell sharply.

Even believers are pulling back

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, once one of Bitcoin's strongest backers, says he has sold most of his holdings. His reasoning is simple.

When the pressure came, Bitcoin did not behave the way it was meant to.

That raises a bigger question. If it does not rise with inflation or hold up in times of stress, what role does it actually play?

The new money magnet: AI

There is another force at work. Capital that once flowed into crypto is now shifting to artificial intelligence.

Investors can back listed companies building AI software, data centres and semiconductors.

The momentum and excitement that once powered crypto is now being redirected. Money tends to chase the next big story and right now, that story is AI.

So what now?

Bitcoin has survived sharp downturns before and recovered each time. Long-term believers will say this is just another volatile chapter.

But the debate is changing. Investors are no longer just asking how high Bitcoin can go. They are asking whether the original story still holds.

Best and worst-performing sectors this week

Consumer staples led the market, up more than 6%. Consumer discretionary followed, up more than 5%, with healthcare up more than 3%.

Technology was the weakest sector, down more than 4%. Materials fell more than 3%, while financials slipped just under 0.5%.

In the ASX 100, Steadfast Group jumped more than 30%, followed by CSL, up more than 9%, and Coles, up more than 8%.

At the other end, Greatland Resources fell more than 12%, Capricorn Metals dropped more than 11% and Newmont declined more than 10%.

What's next for the Australian sharemarket?

The All Ordinaries Index showed resilience this week, despite worsening global conditions linked to the US-Iran conflict.

By Thursday's close, the index was down just over 0.2%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 fell almost 2.5%. That divergence matters.

Investors stepped in again around 8700, a level that also held during the sell-off in late May.

This now looks like the market's line in the sand. As long as the index holds above 8700, the bullish view remains intact.

A clear break below could open the door to 8600 or lower.

Defensive shift underway

Sector moves are also telling a story. Consumer staples, discretionary, healthcare and real estate led gains. These are typically more defensive areas.

At the same time, technology and materials lagged. That is notable given both sectors have rallied strongly in recent weeks.

When money rotates into defensive sectors, it often signals rising caution.

For investors who have benefited from the recent rally, the focus may need to shift. It is not just about buying well. It is about knowing when to sell.

Reports that SpaceX could seek a valuation of about $7.5 trillion in what would be the biggest IPO in history have investors excited.

It is one of the most extraordinary companies ever built, spanning space exploration, satellite communications, defence and artificial intelligence.

But for investors, this story points to something more important, where we are in the market cycle right now.

One of Wall Street's oldest observations is that the biggest IPOs tend to arrive close to major market peaks. Not because the IPO causes a crash, but because deals of that size only happen when confidence is high and investors are willing to pay almost any price for future growth.

History offers some striking examples. The record-breaking AT&T listing came near the peak of the late 1990s boom before the dot-com crash.

Coinbase listed during the crypto surge of 2021, just months before digital assets fell sharply.

Rivian debuted at a valuation larger than many established carmakers shortly before growth stocks suffered one of their worst sell-offs in decades.

The pattern is not perfect, but it is worth paying attention to.

Companies do not rush to list when investors are fearful. They list when markets are strong, valuations are stretched and demand for risk is high.

Property investors have a similar saying. When the world's tallest skyscraper is announced, it often signals the peak of the property cycle.

Extreme optimism leads to extreme projects, and by the time they are delivered, much of the good news is already priced in.

Major market tops rarely form when investors are worried. They form when confidence is high and making money feels easy. That is why downturns catch so many people off guard.

Eventually, markets reach a point where optimism is fully reflected in prices and portfolios are surging. At that point, the question becomes simple, who is left to buy?

None of this means a SpaceX IPO would mark the exact top. Bull markets can continue rising long after early warning signs appear.

But a deal of this scale could be one of the clearest signals yet that the market is entering a late-cycle phase, where excitement starts to replace discipline.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best performing sectors were Information Technology, up more than 7%, followed by Energy, up more than 2%, and Utilities, up more than 0.5%.

The worst performing sectors were Real Estate and Healthcare, both down more than 2%, followed by Communication Services, down more than 1%.

Among ASX 100 stocks, Pro Medicus led gains, up more than 20%, followed by Life360, up more than 12%, and WiseTech Global, up more than 11%.

The weakest performers included ResMed, Stockland and AMP, all down more than 7%.

What is next for the Australian sharemarket

The All Ordinaries Index posted a modest loss of 0.54% by Thursday's close, reversing the positive momentum from the previous week.

Materials dragged on the index, while a rebound in Technology and Energy provided some support in an otherwise subdued market.

Encouragingly, downward momentum appears to have eased. While it is still early, this technical shift suggests buyers are starting to reassert control.

If that continues, the market may again target the 9200 level.

This level has already triggered three reversals, making it a key resistance point.

However, repeated tests often weaken resistance over time. A fourth attempt typically increases the probability of a breakout.

Whether the market pauses at 9200 or breaks through quickly remains to be seen.

Either way, the expectation is that the All Ords could trade above this level in the second half of the year.

Even so, annual gains would remain modest. The index started the year around 9000 and has largely moved sideways through 2026.

For now, key support sits at 8800. More broadly, this remains a highly selective market.

While the index has been flat, certain sectors and stocks have delivered strong returns. That makes stock selection critical.

In conditions like these, where the index tells only part of the story, where the money is flowing matters far more than simply tracking the market.

It released the news at 4:05pm, reportedly believing the market was closed.

But while 'normal trading', where buy and sell orders are matched, had ceased, the market was not closed.

At 4:05pm, there are still phases in the trading day that can impact on a stock's price - as CSL discovered when its shares dropped 5%.

Why stocks can still move after 4pm

Investors get perplexed about why stock prices change after the end of normal trading. Fair enough.

It's a truth universally acknowledged that the ASX market is open from 10:00am to 4:00pm, isn't it?

However, like a good Regency novel, the truth is more complicated.

The many different phases in a trading day allow for different actions to occur.

Let's look at those phases on the ASX, where the bulk of cash equities trading, including shares and exchange traded funds, takes place in Australia.

Other local markets, NSX and Cboe Australia, have similar trading day cycles.

Pre-open
Buy and sell orders are entered into the system, ASX Trade, by brokers on behalf of their clients and queued according to price-time priority, see Explainer 2.

Orders can be amended or cancelled but won't be matched or executed until the market opens.

Opening single price auction
Opening auction, see Explainer 3, takes place where buy and sell orders are matched to become trades.

Orders can be cancelled but new orders and amendments are not accepted.

This is followed by a levelling or buffering period to enable orderly processing by broker systems.

Normal trading
Opening prices are calculated at the start of this phase, after which ASX Trade matches buy and sell orders in price-time priority on a continuous basis until 4pm.

What happens between 4pm and the true close

All stocks open for trading at the same time, replacing the arrangement preceding June 2025 whereby stocks opened on a staggered alphabetical basis over approximately nine minutes.

System robustness now allows large, concentrated volumes to be handled smoothly and efficiently.

Pre-closing single price auction
Continuous matching of orders ceases.

Brokers can enter, alter and cancel orders in preparation for the market close.

Closing single price auction (CSPA)
ASX Trade calculates a consensus closing price for each stock.

Post-close
New orders can be entered, existing orders amended and fresh orders executed at closing prices set during the CSPA.

Cancellations are also permitted.

Why late announcements can still move prices

Since June 2025, a listed company that releases a price sensitive announcement, such as the resignation of a chief executive, between 4:00pm and 4:10pm has its own closing auction in this phase, instead of missing the closing auction window.

This gives investors the opportunity to react to the news, adjust their orders and access the additional liquidity in this phase.

Adjust and Adjust ON
A tidying up period where orders may be cancelled and amended.

But new orders cannot be entered nor trades executed.

Then, orders that have expired or are too far from the market will be purged from the system, followed by a system maintenance adjustment state.

During the Close phase, trading messages cannot be entered or amended, and no matching or auctions occur.

The system unavailable phase enables securities to be added for the next trading day.

Why the ASX doesn't pause at lunch

One phase we don't have in Australia is a lunchtime trading pause, which is common among Asian exchanges including Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Originally serving an operational purpose, its practice today is largely cultural.

With the ever-faster pace of markets, and life generally, perhaps the time for a forced stop in the middle of our day has come.

Fairness, orderliness and efficiency underpin many of the different phases of a trading day.

Knowing what you can do and when is critical to being an informed and effective investor.

Why understanding market phases matters

Explainer 1

Randomised time windows are used as an orderly way to manage high-volume concentrations.

The random timing reduces excess volatility and the opportunity for 'gaming' or manipulating the system, and improves price discovery.

Explainer 2

Price-time priority is a standard exchange fairness and efficiency mechanism, which prioritises orders with the best price (either highest bid or lowest offer) and then, if there are multiple orders at the same price, according to the time received.

Explainer 3

Auctions allow investors to trade at a single point in time, bringing together the widest range of counterparties, delivering transparent and effective price formation.

An auction algorithm is used to determine a fair matching price at the start and the end of the trading day.

The warning signs are already here, and the cracks in the economy are becoming impossible to ignore.

Unemployment has climbed to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021, while employment growth has slowed.

The labour market is clearly weakening, particularly as government spending slows and sectors tied to programs like the NDIS face tightening budgets and hiring pressure.

That matters more than many people realise. The care economy has been one of Australia's biggest sources of employment growth over the past few years.

In some periods, NDIS-related jobs accounted for close to one in every five new jobs created nationally. If that spending slows, the hit to employment could be larger than markets currently expect.

At the same time, inflation is easing and the market is starting to realise what has really been driving much of the inflation problem all along: oil.

It has now spent almost two months trying to break above the US$100 to US$110 range and failed each time. That matters because markets have already stress-tested the worst-case geopolitical scenario.

Every major escalation in the Middle East sent oil to $110, yet each time negotiations or ceasefire discussions emerged, prices collapsed almost instantly, including multiple double-digit percentage falls in a single day. That tells you something important.

The market already knows where the panic ceiling for oil likely sits, but it may not yet be pricing in the downside if broader negotiations continue.

In other words, we now have a much clearer picture of the upside risk for energy prices, while the bigger surprise may now come from how quickly inflation falls if oil keeps retreating.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates have already crushed borrowing power, consumer confidence is fading, businesses are slowing hiring and households are cutting spending.

Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are also weighing on investor confidence at the exact moment Australia is already struggling to build enough homes.

The Reserve Bank risks solving yesterday's inflation problem while creating tomorrow's recession. That's the real danger now.

Interest rates work with a lag. The damage from previous hikes is only just starting to hit the economy and by the time the slowdown becomes obvious in the data, unemployment may already be out of control.

At some point, the focus must shift from fighting inflation to protecting growth because if unemployment keeps rising while productivity keeps falling, the economy won't need another rate hike, it will need a rescue package.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary, up more than 2%, followed by Information Technology and Real Estate, both up more than 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Energy, down 3%, followed by Communication Services and Financials, both down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the S&P/ASX 100 include Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, up more than 12%, followed by James Hardie, up more than 8% and South 32 Limited, up more than 7%.

The worst-performing stocks include ASX Limited, down more than 23%, followed by Regis Resources and Perseus Mining, both down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

The All Ordinaries Index drifted lower again this week, posting a modest but disappointing 0.65% decline by Thursdays close.

The bigger issue, however, is that the Australian market continues to struggle to build momentum.

In fact, the All Ordinaries is trading around similar levels to July 2025, meaning the market has effectively moved sideways for almost a year.

This comes at a time when the US market, particularly the S&P 500, continues to make fresh all-time highs.

Since the tariff-driven sell-off in April 2025, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 55%, while the All Ords has gained only around 20%.

Of course, these are very different markets. The US is heavily weighted toward technology, while Australia is dominated by Financials and Materials.

Still, it raises an interesting question: why do we follow the US market so quickly on the way down, yet hesitate when global markets rally, especially considering we are currently benefiting from a commodities boom.

In reality, it suggests a large amount of money is still sitting cautiously on the sidelines waiting for the "right" opportunity.

From a technical perspective, the 8,800 level continues to provide solid support for the market.

Price action is also beginning to compress, suggesting the market is nearing a point where it will likely make a stronger directional move.

For now, the setup still appears to favour a bounce. However, any break below the 8,600 level would shift the outlook more negatively and increase the risk of a deeper decline.

It feels a long time ago now, but back in late 2023, I gave a speech to an investment crowd at the Windsor Hotel in Melbourne.

It turned into one of my finest hours, but only in hindsight. I left the stage kind of sweaty and drained.

We were there to help people decide what to do with their money. Tough gig.

I bought a new jacket for the event. At least I'd look good if I made a fool of myself. I said to the audience that sentiment was terrible, expectations were low and ASX shares were down in the dumps.

It was good news. It meant there was a huge opportunity to buy stocks on the cheap and position for a rebound.

The ASX was around a two-year low at this time.

When everyone feels negative, opportunity often hides

Afterwards an older gent pointed a finger at me and said, "You! You're too positive!" I don't blame him.

That was the general vibe at the time. There was no momentum in the stockmarket. The news was uninspiring.

Here we are, nearly three years later.

The S&P/ASX 200 hit a record high in February this year. It is up about 30% since that speech, and more if you include dividends.

Plenty of individual stocks have done far better than that. My little speech hit the market.

Confession. I can't take all the credit. I had help.

An Australian man called Colin Nicholson wrote a great book nearly 20 years ago called Building Wealth in the Stock Market. It's a beauty.

I owe him one because behind the scenes I was using his market framework straight out of the book.

The three-stage pattern hiding in this rally

Nicholson describes and divides a bull market into three broad stages like this:

• Stage 1 - Reviving confidence
• Stage 2 - Increasing earnings
• Stage 3 - Speculation

You know what? For such a simple description, it's been bang on over the past three years.

The market rallied over 2024 and 2025 despite no earnings growth.

Confidence came back as interest rates and inflation moderated, AI drove huge growth and excitement in the US and China's economy held together.

That was Stage 1.

I put us at Stage 2, currently, for both the US and Australia.

The ASX is seeing earnings growth again, thanks to strong resource prices and cost cutting. US market earnings improved faster than Australia and are still going up this year.

Why the easy gains may be over

Confidence is solid, although occasionally rattled by events like the Iran shock recently. There'll be a list of worries for the market to climb, because there always is.

At some point we're going to go into Stage 3, speculation. Nicholson notes multiple features about this stage.

Two are that interest rates will be relatively high. Another is that "new paradigm" theories get advanced.

We already know that interest rates are likely going higher. And there's the AI revolution seeping into popular consciousness every day.

The groundwork for a move into Stage 3 is already laid.

At this stage, I expect the speculation to appear heaviest in the resource sector as the resource supercycle narrative gains more traction.

Like all bull market narratives, there are elements of truth here that will get juiced the higher prices and stock prices go.

The market is likely to become more volatile as the market goes higher and fundamentals get stretched.

How much longer can this run last?

Timing is going to become important as the bull run ages.

ChatGPT tells me that the average ASX 200 bull market since 1990 is 46 months, or 3.8 years.

That would suggest we have until about mid-2027 to mid-2028 if that time estimate holds and we take November 2023 as the starting point for the ASX 200.

This is an educated guess, and no more.

The danger signal most investors miss

Here's the kicker you'll need to watch for.

If the market is going to peak around these dates, and please remember that this is no more than a thought experiment today, it's not going to feel dangerous or risky.

In fact, it will feel the opposite, comfortable.

Sir John Templeton famously said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

I expect to give a speech around this time and warn people away from the stockmarket because of all the risks building.

I also expect an older gent to come up to me and say, "You! You're too negative!"

Some things change. Human nature doesn't.

Callum Newman is a senior equity analyst at Marcus Today.

On this episode of the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Tom Watson is joined by Dale Gillham, chief investment analyst at Wealth Within, to discuss the standout stocks, underperformers and what investors should look for in the months ahead.

Episode timestamps

00:00 Introduction

01:52 A tale of two markets

04:24 Macro forces and the market

07:09 Resource sector shines

10:02 CSL slump and other underperformers

12:33 Investor playbook for the second half of 2026

16:15 Conclusion

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Commonwealth Bank just suffered the biggest one-day share price fall in its history this week, plunging more than 10% in a single session.

Most of the headlines blamed the latest trading update and the federal budget, but that explanation only scratches the surface. Something much bigger may now be unfolding.

For decades, CBA traded exactly how you would expect Australia's biggest blue-chip bank to trade. The stock climbed steadily over time, delivered reliable dividends, and moved in controlled long-term cycles, but then COVID changed everything.

Since 2020, CBA has traded less like a traditional bank and more like a momentum stock, surging aggressively higher and becoming increasingly disconnected from the way banks historically behave.

At some point, the market stops paying for safety and starts paying for fantasy. That's the danger when investors begin treating a bank like a tech stock.

History also paints a worrying picture. Before CBA's previous major collapses, including the 60% fall during the GFC and the 44% decline between 2015 and the COVID low, the stock experienced the same kind of aggressive acceleration phase we saw over the past few years, and that's what makes this week so important.

This may not be a dip buyers celebrate in six months. It may be the first crack in a much larger unwind.

If history repeats, a move back toward the $95 region cannot be ruled out. That would imply another potential 50% decline from its highs.

CBA is Australia's largest mortgage lender, and investor lending has become a major engine of growth, with investor loans making up around 43% of new mortgage business at CBA.

Now the government has fired a direct shot at that investor market through the proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing.

Those tax incentives are some of the biggest reasons Australians borrow to invest in property and shares in the first place. The banks built a growth machine around leveraged investors, but now Canberra is actively pulling parts out of the engine.

Higher interest rates were supposed to help banks by boosting lending margins.

Instead, banks may now face weaker investor demand, slowing credit growth, stretched households, and a government making investing less attractive.

And here's the uncomfortable truth many investors ignored for years, and that is that CBA became one of the most expensive banks in the world in 2025.

When a bank becomes priced for perfection in an imperfect economy, gravity eventually returns. This week may have been the market finally waking up to that reality.

The real question now is whether CBA was the warning shot for the banking sector, or simply the first domino to fall.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 4%, followed by Utilities, up more than 2% and Real Estate, up more than 1%.

The worst-performing sectors include Healthcare, down more than 8%, followed by Information Technology and Financials, both down more than 5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Dyno Nobel, up more than 10%, followed by Aristocrat Leisure and Sandfire Resources, both up more than 9%.

The worst-performing stocks include CSL Limited, down more than 18%, followed by WiseTech Global, down more than 13% and Xero Limited, down more than 11%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index slipped lower again this week, posting a 1.07% decline by Thursday's close.

On paper, that's not a major move, but it's the way the recent price action has unfolded that's starting to raise a few eyebrows. Let me explain.

Earlier this year, the market sold off aggressively into the March 2026 low, falling more than 10% and breaking below the previous 8600 support level before eventually finding a low around 8400.

Since then, we've seen a strong recovery attempt over recent months, but there has been one major issue.

The market failed to reclaim the previous highs and instead found resistance around the 9200 level, which I highlighted in earlier reports as a very difficult level for our market to break through.

Since that rejection, price has started to drift lower in an orderly fashion.

It hasn't been a panic-driven collapse like we've seen during previous sell-offs, but rather a slow grind lower, with each of the past five weeks trading slightly weaker than the last.

Sometimes that kind of price action can be more concerning because it suggests a lack of conviction from buyers rather than outright fear from sellers.

What makes the picture a little more contradicting is that the Materials sector continues to perform strongly.

Normally, when Materials are leading, the broader market tends to hold up better. However, heavy weakness in Commonwealth Bank and other banks has put significant pressure on the index and dragged the broader market lower.

Still, regardless of the reasons behind it, we can't ignore the structure currently developing on the chart.

The key level now becomes 8800.

If buyers can't defend that area, then a retest of 8600 becomes increasingly likely, followed by 8400, the major low established earlier this year.

Those levels should provide support, but with volatility elevated, markets can move between them far quicker than many expect.

Of course, this could still simply be a healthy pullback after the sharp recovery we experienced off the lows.

Markets rarely move up in a straight line, and some consolidation after such a fast rise would be normal.

But if that's the case, then eventually we need to see the market reclaim and break above 9200 to confirm the bullish structure is back in play.

Right now, this feels like one of those critical turning points where the next week or two could tell the story.

Add in the fact that President Trump is currently in China discussing trade, and the market has another major variable to react to.

Depending on how those talks unfold, sentiment could shift very quickly in either direction. For now, it's a market that deserves respect from both sides. Stay nimble, stay disciplined, and buckle up.

If the government cuts the current 50% CGT discount to 33% or even 25%, investors, ETF holders and even crypto investors are likely to be hit too.

This changes the equation for millions of Australians because, unlike property, the sharemarket is often the only realistic entry point for younger Australians trying to build wealth.

Many cannot afford investment properties, so they turn to shares, ETFs and long-term investing to get ahead outside of wages alone.

Now that path may become far less attractive.

Australians already take risks by investing their capital and bearing the losses when markets fall. Yet when they finally make a profit, the government now wants a larger cut of the reward.

The irony of this is hard to ignore.

Years of excessive government spending helped fuel inflation, which pushed interest rates higher and crushed household budgets.

Now, after Australians have already been squeezed by rising living costs, the proposed solution appears to be taxing investment gains even harder.

So, what does the change to CGT mean for investors? If the reward for holding long-term keeps shrinking, Australians may start questioning why they should sit through major downturns just to receive less favourable tax outcomes at the end of it.

The traditional buy-and-hold no matter what approach may become harder to justify.

Instead, this could push more investors toward becoming active risk managers rather than passive holders.

Protecting capital during major market downturns, taking profits when markets become overheated and managing tax outcomes more strategically may become increasingly important.

Because once investing becomes less rewarding, people do not just make fewer trades; they start changing the entire way they invest.

Whether you are young or nearing retirement, Australians who have never thought about actively managing their investments may soon be forced to learn because in this environment, simply holding and hoping may no longer be enough to maximise long-term returns.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 4%, followed by Financials, up more than 2% and Industrials, up more than 1%.

The worst-performing sectors include Energy, down more than 6%, followed by Consumer Staples and Utilities, both down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Capricorn Metals, up more than 15%, followed by IGO Limited and Greatland Resources, both up more than 9%.

The worst-performing stocks include Light & Wonder Inc, down more than 10%, followed by A2 Milk, down more than 9% and Woodside Energy, down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index bounced back strongly this week with a solid gain of more than 1.5% by Thursday's close.

More importantly, the index once again found support around the 8900 level and refused to trade lower, which is a reassuring sign for the broader trend.

The week actually started off subdued, but momentum built significantly in the latter half as oil prices eased and renewed hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East lifted investor sentiment.

This is exactly why I have continued to view this pullback as more of a manufactured crisis rather than a fundamentally broken market.

The headlines have certainly created fear, but underneath it all, many Australian companies remain in strong financial shape.

What is also helping our market is the continued strength in commodities, which is providing a much-needed tailwind for the Australian economy and the sharemarket alike.

That was reflected again this week, with the Materials sector leading the charge, while Energy pulled back sharply as oil prices cooled.

Once again, the market now turns its attention toward the key 9200 level.

This has become the major battleground for the All Ords, but there is an interesting characteristic about markets worth remembering, and that is the more times price tests a resistance level, the more likely it is to eventually break through it.

Each test tends to weaken the sellers sitting there, and if momentum continues to build, the market may finally have enough strength to push through.

One thing to be mindful of, however, is seasonality.

May has already significantly outperformed its historical average, and June is typically a softer month for our market, which could slow things down a little.

Right now, this feels like a catch-up rally after the sharp sell-off earlier in the year.

The broader picture remains constructive.

The market appears to be recovering, and this could very well be the turning point many investors have been waiting for, assuming, of course, we do not see a major escalation overseas.

I would also keep a close eye on China, because any stabilisation or recovery there could become another important driver for our miners and resource sector moving forward.

After the volatility we have had this year, it is worth appreciating the small wins.

The market is holding up far better than many expected, and that says quite a lot about its resilience.

Every time pressure builds in the Australian economy, the same solution gets rolled out. The government squeezes the people who are easiest to tax and right now, that's everyday Australians trying to build wealth.

The push to change the capital gains tax rules isn't just a policy tweak, it's a signal.

If you're buying property, investing in shares or trying to get ahead outside of your salary, you're now the target. Not because you're the problem, but because you're visible, domestic and easy to reach. Meanwhile, the biggest pools of wealth in this country remain structurally protected.

Australia is one of the most resource-rich nations in the world, yet we behave like a middleman in our own economy.

We dig it up, ship it out, lock in long-term contracts and then act surprised when domestic prices spike or the domestic tax doesn't match the scale of what's leaving the country.

That's not bad luck, that's a policy choice because here's the uncomfortable truth, it's politically easier to tighten rules on mum and dad investors than it is to redesign how the country monetises its biggest advantage.

So instead, we get the illusion of action by tweaking capital gains, talk about reducing spending and, maybe, clipping a few programs.

It creates the appearance of discipline, without ever touching the core issue, which is Australia doesn't maximise what it already owns and that's where the strategy is broken.

If this budget was about strengthening the economy, the focus wouldn't be on extracting more from individuals, it would be about expanding the base.

That means working out how to capture resource profits, prioritising domestic supply before exports in critical sectors like gas, incentivising investment rather than discouraging it through tax creep and, most importantly, shifting from a tax what's visible mindset to a grow what's valuable strategy.

Sadly, we're taxing ambition while underutilising our resource advantage and that's the real risk.

And it feels like Groundhog Day because the system is broken.

The same people are repeatedly asked to contribute more, while the biggest levers for growth sit untouched.

At some point, that stops being economic management and starts looking like avoidance.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 2%, followed by Real Estate and Industrials, both up under 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Consumer Staples, down more than 6%, followed by Materials, down more than 3% and Healthcare, down more than 2%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Atlas Arteria Limited, up more than 10%, followed by Mineral Resources, up more than 7%, and Whitehaven Coal, up more than 6%.

The worst-performing stocks include Westgold Resources, down more than 11%, followed by Ramelius Resources and Woolworths Group, both down more than 9%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

Another week of selling pressure weighed on the market this week, with the All Ordinaries closing down 1.32% on Thursday.

The move was largely driven by ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, with no clear resolution in sight. That backdrop pushed oil prices higher, which in turn lifted the Energy sector as the standout performer.

At the other end of the spectrum, Consumer Staples came under heavy pressure, falling more than 6% as rising input costs and margin compression started to bite.

From a technical perspective, the market is now at a genuine inflection point.

This could still be a healthy pullback within the uptrend that began in March, but there are early signs the market may need more time to reset. Resistance at the 9200 level comes as no surprise, as once again it has held firm.

What looks increasingly likely in the short term is a period of consolidation.

Following the strength seen in recent months, the market may need to absorb gains and work through external uncertainties. That opens the door for a more sideways environment, potentially extending into the second half of the year.

On the downside, 8600 remains the key level to watch.

It's the logical area where buyers would be expected to step back in if weakness continues. A move toward that level wouldn't disrupt the broader structure and would still sit comfortably within a constructive trend. From there, another attempt at 9200 would be the natural progression.

A break below the March lows, however, would change the picture.

That would introduce a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, signalling a shift away from upward momentum.

A more constructive outcome would be a bounce from higher levels, around 8800, followed by a renewed push toward and potentially through 9200. That would confirm buyers are still active and willing to step in earlier, which is typically a sign of underlying strength.

In this kind of environment, discipline becomes critical. Bottom-picking can be expensive when volatility is elevated.

A more effective approach is to stay focused on liquidity, stick with relative strength and watch sector rotation closely.

When the index loses direction, that's often where the real opportunities start to emerge.

That's not a typo. It's more than the average Australian annual salary earned in a matter of weeks, and if you're thinking that's just hindsight, here's the key point. Zip Co and Technology One didn't just randomly spike.

They set up in the same way, same pattern, same opportunity, and right now there are plenty of stocks lining up with that exact same setup.

Sharp selloffs, panic and headlines, then a snap back. We saw it again with Mineral Resources back in April 2025. Around the $20 mark, the same pattern showed up.

A $10,000 position with disciplined risk could have turned into more than $200,000 within six months. Not bad, but this isn't about cherry-picking winners, it's about understanding the environment we're in.

Since COVID, market volatility hasn't just increased, it's structurally changed.

Measures like the S&P/ASX 200 VIX have shown repeated spikes well above long-term averages, reflecting faster reactions to macro news, interest rate shifts and geopolitical events. What used to take months now happens in days, and that compression in time is everything because it means fear-driven selloffs are sharper and the rebounds even sharper.

For traders who understand it, this is a dream environment. One clean setup can genuinely equal a year's income, but only if you know what you're looking for.

There's also been a structural shift in participation. Since 2020, retail trading activity surged globally, with millions of new investors entering the market through low-cost platforms.

Broker data and exchange reports across markets have consistently shown elevated account openings and trading volumes compared to pre-COVID levels. More participants mean more emotion, which equates to more volatility and more opportunity.

However, when we turn on the news, everything feels uncertain and it sounds like the world is falling apart. Yet the market keeps pushing toward all-time highs.

That disconnect confuses people, but it shouldn't because markets don't move on headlines. They move on positioning, liquidity and expectation, which is why in the current environment, the edge isn't in predicting the world, it's in focusing on companies.

If volatility is creating these exaggerated selloffs and quality companies are being dragged down by macro noise, are you looking at the next opportunity?

The same setup that created moves in Zip, Technology One and Mineral Resources is forming again. The difference this time is that most people won't act on it because in the moment it feels uncertain and risky, but that's exactly what opportunity looks like if you have the knowledge and skill to take advantage of it.

This market isn't going back to how it was anytime soon. Volatility is higher, moves are faster and opportunities are bigger. But with the right approach, even a relatively small amount of capital can yield massive results.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Staples, up more than 2%, followed by Real Estate and Industrials, both up under 0.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Healthcare, down more than 6%, followed by Financials, down more than 3% and Energy, down more than 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Treasury Wines Estate, up more than 13%, followed by James Hardie Industries, up more than 8%, and NEXTDC Limited, up more than 4%.

The worst-performing stocks include Cochlear Limited, down more than 43%, followed by Lynas Rare Earths, down more than 11% and HUB24 Limited, down more than 10%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

Sellers took control of the All Ordinaries Index this week, pushing the market down 1.59% by Thursday's close. If that's starting to trigger flashbacks of previous selloffs, take a step back. The bigger picture tells a very different story.

Over the past four weeks, the All Ords has surged nearly 9% with no selling pressure. That kind of one-sided move doesn't last forever, which makes this week's pullback less of a warning sign and more of a reset. In many ways, it was overdue. Now comes the real test, the 9000 level. If the index can hold above this zone, the path towards new all-time highs remains firmly intact.

If 9000 gives way, the next key support sits between 8800 and 8600. Given the strength of the recent rally, even a move into that range would still fall within the bounds of a healthy pullback. In fact, considering how sharp the run-up has been, a fast, aggressive drop wouldn't be unusual. The critical point is this, the 8600 to 8800 region must hold.

A break below 8600 shifts the conversation entirely and opens the door to a more serious downturn. This becomes even more relevant when you factor in seasonality. Historically, May and June tend to be weaker months for the market, suggesting we could see increased selling pressure in the near term. The hope is that April's strength provides enough buffer to absorb that.

Looking ahead, the next directional clue is likely to come from sector rotation. Technology appears to be building momentum. Financials, on the other hand, have underperformed throughout April, but any rebound in May could help stabilise the index during a typically softer period. Materials have carried the market higher recently, which also makes them the most vulnerable to short-term profit-taking.

Put it all together, and the most likely outcome may not be a sharp move in either direction, but rather a period of choppy, sideways price action. If the Materials sector cools off while Financials pick up the slack, the index could grind rather than trend.

For now, it's simple, stay focused on the key levels. They'll tell you everything you need to know about what comes next.

The possible class action relates to its 1Q FY26 results and downgraded FY26 guidance released on August 20, 2025.

After releasing its Q1 results, the James Hardie share price declined by around 34%, wiping billions of dollars from its market capitalisation.

Slater and Gordon said that on the basis of its investigations to date, the proposed proceeding is likely to allege that James Hardie engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct and/or breached its continuous disclosure obligations, in relation to its FY26 earnings guidance, first provided to the ASX on May 21, 2025; and failure to update market consensus on its 1Q FY26 performance until August 20, 2025.

The claim proposes to represent shareholders who purchased James Hardie shares on the ASX between May 21, 2025 and August 19, 2025.

"Our financial markets rely on companies providing prompt disclosure of all material information relevant to investment decision making," says Slater and Gordon head of class actions Emma Pelka-Caven.

"It is vital that listed companies are held accountable in circumstances that shareholders are misled, or material information is withheld."

This is not the first time James Hardie shareholders have encountered issues with its governance.

In October last year the ASX launched a review into listing rules related to shareholder approval requirements, particularly when it comes to mergers and acquisitions.

The ASX says due to "heightened investor interest" around James Hardie's proposed acquisition of US-based Azek, it decided to launch the review into shareholder approval requirements for mergers and takeovers of listed companies undertaking a significant transaction.

The ASX allowed James Hardie to proceed with a $14 billion transaction without an investor vote, which led to backlash from major investors including AustralianSuper, UniSuper, Aware Super and HESTA.

Following that three US pension funds lodged proxy votes to remove Anne Lloyd as James Hardie chair at the company's AGM, also in October 2025.

CalPERS, CalSTRS and the Florida State Board of Administration lodged proxy votes with Glass Lewis, calling for Lloyd to be removed as chair.

This article first appeared on FS Sustainability

What if next week's CPI numbers aren't about inflation, but rather the system we're using to control it, which is starting to break?

April 29 could mark a major turning point for Australia, not because of the number itself, but because of what it forces policymakers to admit.

For the past two years, the playbook has been simple: raise interest rates, slow demand to bring inflation down.

But next week's CPI lands at a time when inflation is no longer being driven purely by demand.

It's being shaped by forces we can't easily control, such as energy dynamics, global supply chains, and structural constraints within Australia's economy. That's what makes the release of next week's data different.

If inflation comes in hot, the default response is to keep interest rates high, and maybe even push them further.

But here's the problem: higher interest rates don't produce more energy, fix housing shortages, or improve productivity. They simply compress the parts of the economy that are still functioning. In other words, policy risks becoming misaligned with the problem it's trying to solve.

For everyday Australians, this is where the real shift is happening. It's no longer just about higher repayments or cost-of-living pressure, it's about the structure of the economy changing underneath them.

If rates stay high to fight supply-driven inflation, growth starts to slow. Investment weakens, hiring slows, and the economy loses momentum in places unrelated to the original cause of inflation.

That's a very different environment from what people are used to, one where things don't collapse suddenly but quietly stagnate.

On the other hand, if CPI shows signs of easing, it creates room for policymakers to pause, but even that comes with a catch. A pause doesn't fix the underlying issues either, it just delays the adjustment.

That's why next week's CPI numbers matter more than most. It's not just a read on inflation, it's a test of whether the current strategy still works or whether Australia is heading into a period in which inflation remains elevated while growth slows anyway.

That's the uncomfortable scenario no one wants to say out loud.

Because if that's where we're headed, the implications are bigger than interest rates. It reshapes how Australians invest, businesses plan, and how the economy grows over the next decade.

So, when this number drops, don't just look at whether it's higher or lower than expected. Look at what it forces the RBA to do next, because that decision will tell you far more about the future than the inflation figure itself.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Information Technology, up more than 11%, followed by Real Estate, up more than 2%, and Materials, up more than 1%.

The worst-performing sectors include Industrials, down more than 2%, followed by Financials and Utilities, both down more than 1%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Wisetech Global, up more than 19%, followed by Pro Medicus, up more than 17%, and Xero Limited, up more than 14%.

The worst-performing stocks include A2 Milk, down more than 18%, followed by Downer EDI, down more than 9%, and Ansell Limited, down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The market pushed higher again this week, although in a much more subdued fashion, finishing Wednesday up just 0.19%. On the surface, it may not look like much, but context is everything.

Only a few weeks ago, the index was down more than 10%, and now, after a sharp three-week recovery, we're sitting just a few percentage points off the all-time high. That's a strong statement about both the market's resilience and the speed at which sentiment can shift.

This week, the technology sector stole the spotlight, surging more than 11%, which shouldn't come as a surprise.

As the market rotates back into a risk-on environment, tech is often one of the first sectors to rebound sharply, especially after the sustained pressure it's been under over the past year. When sentiment turns, these beaten-down sectors can move quickly.

From a broader perspective, the market is now back in a healthy upswing, but it's not without its challenges.

The 9200 level is looming as a significant resistance zone, and it wouldn't be unusual to see the price hesitate or even drift sideways as it tests this area. Strong rallies often need time to consolidate, particularly when they've been as swift as this one.

That said, there's still a considerable amount of capital sitting on the sidelines, and that tends to act as a cushion on any pullbacks.

Buyers are looking for opportunities, and that underlying demand can help support the market even if momentum slows in the short term.

The levels remain clear. A sustained break above 9200 would open the door for a continuation of the uptrend, while 9000 now stands out as a solid support level.

What makes this rally particularly interesting is the backdrop.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and lingering recession concerns haven't disappeared, yet the market continues to push higher. It raises a fair question, is this smart money confidently positioning for what's ahead, or are they underestimating the risks still in play?

As always, the answer won't come from opinions or headlines, it will come from price.

Stay focused on the levels, respect the momentum, and let the market confirm the next move.

The war in the Middle East has dominated headlines since late February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a conflict now into its seventh week.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, global oil supplies disrupted, and inflation is running high.

For many investors, the instinct is to sell. This instinct is almost always the wrong one.

Despite the severity of the conflict, the S&P 500 has just closed at a record high.

That is not an anomaly. It is how share markets have typically behaved through major geopolitical events for decades.

The historical pattern

History shows that after major geopolitical shocks, share markets are normally higher 12 months later, and in most cases go on to new highs.

In fact, in 19 of the past 20 geopolitical events since the end of WWII, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after the conflict began.

These events include the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Yom Kippur War, 9/11, the Iraq War and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Each one felt, at the time, like a reason to get out of the market. In every case, investors who stayed put were better off a year later.

The mechanics are straightforward. The worst of the fall typically happens in the first four to six weeks. After that, the worst-case scenario is already reflected in prices.

Unless an event materially changes the long-term economic outlook, and very few do, share prices begin to recover.

A decline of 10% or more tends to occur every 18 to 24 months. This is simply the volatility investors must accept when they invest in shares.

Recovery from these declines is the rule, not the exception.

Selling out of the market during a conflict requires being right twice, once on the way out and once on the way back in.

As Baron Rothschild famously put it, "Buy to the sound of the cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets."

This is far harder than it sounds. It means selling when things feel fine and buying when panic is at its peak.

Most investors manage the first. Very few manage the second.

A decline in portfolio value has roughly twice the emotional impact of an equivalent gain. That is why so many investors freeze at exactly the wrong moment.

The cost of freezing is significant.

An investor who stayed fully invested in the S&P 500 from 1995 to 2025 earned around 10.3% a year, according to Invesco.

An investor who missed just the 10 best trading days over that period earned a much lower 7.4% a year.

Those best days tend to cluster during periods of fear, which are the very moments investors feel most tempted to sell.

We saw this clearly during COVID-19.

After the initial lockdowns in March 2020, no-one could have predicted the share market would rise by 37% over the following 12 months.

Those who panicked and moved to cash missed the recovery.

Later research showed more than half of super fund members who switched investment options during this period would have been better off doing nothing at all.

What actually drives returns

Short-term price movements are driven by headlines. Long-term returns are driven by economics.

Over the next few years, the numbers that matter are unemployment, GDP growth, corporate earnings and inflation.

These determine whether businesses can grow profits, whether consumers can keep spending, and whether central banks raise or cut interest rates.

Wars and geopolitical events rarely change the long-term direction of the share market.

The takeaway

Any investment in shares should be made with a minimum three-year view, and ideally five to 10 years.

On that timeframe, the current conflict, like every conflict before it, is very unlikely to matter for returns.

Wars are devastating for humanity, but share markets are forward-looking and work through shocks far faster than most investors expect.

The S&P 500 reaching record highs during the conflict is not callousness. It reflects the collective judgement that earnings will still be growing 12 months from now.

The most effective response is usually the dullest one.

Keep a long-term view, stay invested and let fundamentals do the work. Time in the market beats timing the market.

What if the biggest opportunity in the market just flashed right in front of you? This week, when Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire, the Australian tech sector didn't just move, it exploded, surging more than 7% in a single day.

In fact, over the past few weeks, the tech sector has already delivered double-digit gains. Now, if you're wondering how that's possible, given that tech is typically seen as a high-risk growth sector that struggles when oil prices rise and global uncertainty builds, it might be time to rethink that view.

So here's the real question: despite what history would suggest, is the surge the clearest signal yet that the tech sector is gearing up for a major rebound?

Let's step back for a second. Tech has been smashed, down nearly 50% in just six months. Sentiment has been weak, confidence was shaken, and investors have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity, but here's how markets really work. They don't wait for clarity, they move before it.

Weeks before the war, the stock prices of tech companies were already telling a story. Selling pressure was fading and key levels were holding. Buyers were quietly stepping in while everyone else was still focused on the headlines. However, this is where it gets even more interesting.

Why does a ceasefire matter so much to tech? The answer is because it changes the entire macro picture in an instant. Less geopolitical tension means less pressure on oil. Lower oil prices ease inflation, and softer inflation opens the door to more stable interest rates. Tech stocks thrive in this environment.

Just look back through history and you will see oil and tech move in opposite directions. When oil surges, tech gets crushed under inflation and rising rates. When oil cools, tech stocks come back to life.

So if oil stabilises from here, that raises the biggest question of all. Has the bottom for Australian tech stocks already been set, even as most investors are still waiting for confirmation? The answer may well be in this week's buying power and, if April last year taught us anything, it's this. When the technology sector turns after a deep sell-off based on external factors, it doesn't crawl higher, it sprints higher.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 6%, followed by Financials, up more than 5%, and Information Technology, up more than 4%.

The worst-performing sectors include Energy, down more than 3%, followed by Utilities, down more than 1%, and Consumer Staples, slightly down, under 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include NEXTDC Limited, up more than 14%, followed by Greatland Resources, up more than 13%, and Lynas Rare Earths, up more than 1%.

The worst-performing stocks include Whitehaven Coal, down more than 7%, followed by Woodside Energy, down more than 4%, and AGL Energy, down more than 2%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries delivered a powerful move this week, surging more than 4%. To put this into perspective, you have to go back to the COVID-driven rebound in 2020 to find a weekly gain of that magnitude. Moves like this don't come around often, and when they do, they usually signal something meaningful is shifting beneath the surface.

What stands out even more is the clean break back above the 9000 level. This has been a key battleground for months, and reclaiming it puts the market firmly back on the front foot. We're now trading at levels last seen in February and, perhaps most impressively, the market has worked its way back into positive territory for the year. That's a sharp turnaround considering we were staring at a double-digit decline just weeks ago.

Although the recovery has been strong so far, there's still a major test ahead. The 9300 level has consistently acted as stubborn resistance, and it now becomes the next real hurdle. Momentum can drive markets higher in the short term, but levels like this tend to determine whether a move has real staying power.

Financials and Materials have carried the index higher, and for this move to continue, participation needs to widen. Strong trends are built on broad-based strength, not just a couple of dominant sectors carrying the load.

Energy pulled back slightly this week on ceasefire developments, easing pressure on oil prices, but that story is far from over. If tensions flare again and oil spikes, it creates a difficult balance, strength in energy stocks on the one hand, but renewed inflation pressure weighing on the rest of the market.

For now, it's important to recognise just how strong this rebound has been. The speed and structure of the move suggest there's real intent behind it. If momentum holds and external conditions remain supportive, a push toward all-time highs by month's end isn't out of the question.

The key from here is discipline. Strong rallies can be tempting, but they also demand focus. Watch how price behaves around 9300 and let the market confirm whether this move has more to give.

HUB's offering has attracted a record number of financial advisors, and is taking market share from competitors, still with a substantial runway for growth.

Helping drive this change is the switching patterns of superannuants seeking more sophisticated levels of advice as they approach retirement - a trend that will only accelerate as the population ages and retirement balances swell.

HUB has been a beneficiary of major changes in the wealth management industry over the past five to 10 years which has seen incumbent players such as Insignia, CFS, BT and AMP ceding share to the tech-enabled wealth management and investment service platforms like HUB.

Ultimately, it's the ongoing investment in technology that continues to attract advisors and in turn funds under administration (FUA), driving market share gains.

Importantly, from a HUB revenue perspective, advisor numbers lead flow by about 24 months, so we view revenue growth as highly visible.

Consequently, we believe HUB can continue delivering revenue growth of more than 20% per annum and is expected to outpace cost increases, supporting further margin expansion and operating leverage over time.

Moreover, a significant tailwind for HUB has started to emerge, the transfer of superannuation from industry funds to advisors, and in particular, to platforms like HUB.

This is illustrated by recent data that shows industry superannuation funds have now moved into net outflow. In our view, this is being driven by the desire for more advice ahead of retirement as decisions become more complicated and demanding.

Most compelling for investors is that the FUA growth profile for HUB, and the rising per-client FUA is translating to rising revenue, earnings, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin.

HUB's purpose-built platform is especially effective in converting economies of scale into improving margins and lower unit costs per adviser/client, adding an edge that can compound powerfully for investors over time.

On earnings, HUB is delivering year-on-year growth. EBITDA margins have been gradually rising. HUB has strong free cash flow and continues to actively reinvest strategically in technology and growth initiatives, which we expect to translate into sustained FUA and earnings per share (EPS) growth over the coming years.

In summary, we see HUB as a high quality, long duration compounding investment in the growth of household and superannuation wealth. Its technology advantage, growing adviser base, cost efficiency and margin profile provide a compelling investment case for long-term investors.

High quality core asset 

Ferrari is a high-margin luxury business with gross margins of about 50%. Growth is driven by deliberate supply discipline. Production is constrained to preserve exclusivity, resulting in sustained excess demand and multi-year order backlogs. This underpins both pricing power and earnings visibility.

Proven capital allocation 

Returns are driven by changes in underlying asset values, capital allocation decisions, movements in the discount to NAV.

The first two have been delivered historically, although future outcomes remain uncertain.

Discount to NAV 

At about 50%, the current discount is wide in both absolute and historical terms. The opportunity lies in mean reversion. A narrowing towards the historical range implies material upside, even without underlying NAV growth.

The investment case does not rely on strong macro conditions. Instead, returns are driven by portfolio execution and the potential for discount normalisation.

On balance, the odds and probabilities favour a narrowing of the discount.

What does Exor do?  

Exor's origins trace back to the end of the 19th century, when Giovanni Agnelli founded Fabbrica Italiana Automobili Torino, or FIAT.

Today Exor is a Dutch-listed holding company controlled by the Agnelli family (about 55% economic interest, about 85% voting control). It operates as a permanent capital vehicle, allocating across a concentrated portfolio spanning automotive, luxury, healthcare, and media. Key holdings include companies such as Stellantis, CNH Industrial, Philips and Ferrari.

Strategy and outlook  

Management is actively working to reduce the discount and simplify the structure through the following actions:

• about €2 billion of buybacks (completed and ongoing)  
• about €3 billion Ferrari sell-down  
• about €1.5 billion Iveco monetisation (pending)  
• increasing portfolio turnover  

Exor maintains a strong balance sheet and operates with limited financial leverage at the holding company level. This provides flexibility to redeploy capital across opportunities.

Returns 

Exor has delivered strong long-term returns, with NAV per share compounding at about 18% per annum since 2009. This reflects disciplined capital allocation and a willingness to recycle capital across the portfolio.

While the 2025 results were down on the previous year, the business increased its cash position and reduced debt through disposals, strengthening its balance sheet and executed €1bn of share buybacks at half the underlying value.

Every year, people wait for the "perfect time" to start investing.

They wait for certainty, stability, and for the headlines to calm down. The reality is that the moment rarely comes, and when it does, the opportunity is usually gone. Right now doesn't feel comfortable.

Markets have been rattled by geopolitical tension, oil shocks, and global uncertainty. March didn't just drift lower, it dropped around 8%, a sharp move that quickly shakes confidence. But this is where things should get interesting for you rather than fearful, and here's why.

April has historically been one of the best months for posting gains on the ASX since the 1980s. It's second to July, but only slightly. March, on the other hand, is usually fairly flat.

However, this year the pattern flipped. Instead of easing into April, the market has taken a hit that creates a very different setup.

Prices have pulled back, sentiment has cooled, and quality stocks are now sitting at levels that looked expensive just weeks ago. It's the kind of reset markets don't offer often, especially heading into a strong seasonal window. At the same time, fund managers are starting to reposition.

April is when portfolios get reshuffled in anticipation of the next earnings season. Underperformers are cut, capital gets rotated, and money starts flowing into companies expected to perform. That shift brings liquidity back into the market, often before the broader public notices.

Now here's the part most people overlook. Many traders I've worked with actively look for setups like this on the chart.

They turn weakness into strength because these seasonal tailwinds are some of the best moments to buy, and they're ready to act when the opportunity shows up. To put it simply, April is a time when retail investors like you have an advantage.

You're not forced to deploy capital on a schedule. You're not tied to mandates or quarterly performance pressure. You can wait, be selective, and step in when the odds look better. Moments like this are exactly what that flexibility is for.

Put it all together and the picture becomes clear. A market that's been knocked down, a historically strong month ahead, and large players quietly repositioning beneath the surface all spell opportunity.

For someone starting out, this is the kind of environment that rewards action over hesitation. It doesn't mean everything rallies instantly, but it does mean the market has handed you a discount at a time when conditions are beginning to improve. Call it an early Easter present.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, more than 6%, followed by Information Technology, more than 3%, and Energy, more than 1.5%.

The worst-performing sectors include Financials, down under 0.5%, followed by Consumer Staples, up under 0.5%, and Health Care, more than 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Greatland Resources, more than 33%, followed by Northern Star Resources, more than 19%, and Westgold Resources, more than 16%.

The worst-performing stocks include Endeavour Group, down more than 4%, followed by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and Telix Pharmaceuticals, both down more than 3%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

Buyers have stepped back in strongly on the All Ordinaries this week, with the index closing on Wednesday up just under 2%. What stands out most isn't just the move higher, it's the strength behind it.

After sharp sell-offs, markets usually respond in one of two ways. You either see hesitant buying, where investors dip their toe back in and price drifts sideways for weeks, or you get a decisive snap-back rally. Right now, it looks like we're seeing the latter.

If this pace continues, and history is any guide, the All Ords could be pushing back toward its all-time high by the end of April.

That said, 9100 now becomes the key battleground. If buyers can hold above this level and close the week strong, a sharp move back toward the highs is well within reach.

We've seen this before. After the tariff-driven sell-off last February, the market fell for about eight weeks, only to recover all that ground and make a new high within seven weeks once buyers returned.

This time, the pullback has only lasted four weeks. So the question becomes, can we reclaim new highs in just three weeks? It's possible, but again, 9100 is the level to watch. Either way, the important shift is clear. Buyers are back, they're coming in with conviction, and that creates opportunity.

Many high-quality stocks were dragged lower during the recent sell-off, and prices that looked out of reach just a couple of months ago are now back on the table. The materials sector is a perfect example. Stocks like BHP Group, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group had surged earlier this year, leaving many investors feeling like they'd missed the move.

Now the market is offering a second chance, with prices pulling back toward those initial breakout levels. Call it an early Easter gift, but be ready to act, because opportunities like this don't tend to stick around for long.

Jamieson explains how "defence" now spans drones, robotics, AI, cybersecurity, and software, and argues rising geopolitical risk and NATO catch-up spending make it a longer-term structural theme, though stocks can be cyclical and require active rebalancing and profit-taking.

Episode timestamps

01:30 What counts as defence stocks

02:22 Why defence stocks are rallying

04:02 Do you already have exposure

05:46 Cyclical stocks and profit-taking

07:49 Fear trade or structural trend?

09:58 Defence ETFs to consider

11:53 Stock spotlight: DroneShield

13:21 Ethics of defence investing

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Friends With Money is a weekly personal finance podcast by Money magazine, offering expert insights on investing, budgeting, superannuation, property, and other money strategies for everyday Australians.

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Petrol prices are climbing, diesel is skyrocketing, and the narrative is quickly shifting towards fear. However, this is usually the point at which it pays to step back and examine what's really happening. Yes, there is pressure in the system, but it isn't the beginning of a long-term collapse.

Australia does have fuel reserves, and while they're not massive, they are enough to manage short-term disruptions.

The real pressure point right now is diesel, as it powers the backbone of the economy, from transport and mining to construction and agriculture. When diesel prices rise, that cost flows through to freight, food and your weekly shop. So, rightly so, both businesses and households are feeling the pain. But here's what's missing from the headlines.

Before tensions escalated in the Middle East, the world wasn't short on oil. Supply was strong, inventories were healthy and prices had been trending lower. What we're seeing now isn't a structural shortage, it's a reaction to disruption and uncertainty, which won't last forever.

Historically, conflicts in the Middle East trigger sharp spikes in oil prices, but they also tend to settle once tensions ease. The global energy market is highly responsive. When prices rise, supply follows.

Producers increase output, alternative supply routes open and previously unviable production suddenly makes economic sense.

The United States plays a key role in this. It has both the incentive and the capability to stabilise energy markets. Prolonged energy shocks hurt global growth, which is not in anyone's interest, especially the world's largest economy.

So, the focus typically shifts towards stabilising supply rather than letting disruption drag on, which is why you are seeing the price of oil find a ceiling at $100 a barrel. That doesn't mean the issue will resolve itself overnight, but it does mean it's not permanent.

Remember, headlines amplify fear, but markets move on expectations. Right now, markets are pricing in disruption, not a long-term breakdown of the global energy system. We've seen this play out before; prices spike, sentiment turns extreme, supply then adapts and prices settle. It's a natural cycle.

For everyday Australians, the key is not to panic, but to prepare. Expect short-term pressure on fuel and food costs, adjust where you can and avoid making decisions based purely on fear-driven headlines because while this situation is serious, it's also temporary.

Energy markets are cyclical. Supply responds, tensions ease and when they do, the narrative will shift just as quickly as it escalated.

What are the best- and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 4%, followed by Utilities and Consumer Discretionary, both up more than 2%.

The worst-performing sectors include Information Technology, down more than 3%, followed by Financials, down more than 0.5% and Communication Services, down under 0.5%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Pilbara Minerals, up more than 17%, followed by Pinnacle Investment Management, up more than 13%, and Light & Wonder Inc, up more than 12%.

The worst-performing stocks include WiseTech Global Limited, down more than 10%, followed by Treasury Wine Estates and Endeavour Group, both down more than 7%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index staged a solid reversal this week, finishing Thursday with a modest 1.14% gain. On the surface, that might not seem overly exciting, but when you look at how the week unfolded, it tells a much more interesting story.

On Monday, the market was down 2%, trading down to the 8450 level. It looked like the sell-off was set to continue, but instead of trading lower, buyers stepped in quickly and aggressively by Wednesday, shifting the tone of the entire week.

What this highlights is just how much volatility has picked up. Moves are becoming faster and more reactive, and at times it feels like price is being driven less by fundamentals and more by headlines, or even a single comment out of the US. That kind of environment can feel unpredictable, but it also creates opportunity for those who stay focused on the charts.

The encouraging part is where we've ended up. The market has pushed back above the 8700 level, which is an important area when you look at the bigger picture. It's a level that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times over the years, so reclaiming it is a positive sign that buyers are starting to regain some control.

From here, a small pullback wouldn't be surprising. After a sharp reversal like that, markets often pause or retrace slightly before deciding on the next move. But the key level to watch now is the recent low around 8450. As long as that level holds, the structure for a potential turnaround remains intact.

It's also worth remembering that trends don't form overnight. They build over time, often starting with moves exactly like this, a sharp rejection of lower prices followed by a recovery back to key levels. For now, it's early days, but it's a promising start.

So, what does happen to your shares when you die? If you own shares and want to divide them between your children, can you simply split them before you die, or does it need to be dealt with in your will?

The answer is that both approaches are possible, but most people ultimately deal with shares through their estate planning.

How shares are held and why it matters

Before looking at either approach, it's important to check how the shares are owned. In other words, are the shares held by an individual, or are they jointly held with a spouse.

If shares are held as joint tenants (which is common for couples) they pass automatically to the surviving owner when one person dies, regardless of what the will says. The shares will only be distributed under a will once the last surviving owner dies (or if the joint ownership was changed during their lifetime).

If the shares are held as tenants in common (each person owns a defined proportional interest), each person's share forms part of their own estate and can be dealt with in their individual will.

Getting this right at the outset is essential, because how you own them determines whether your will has any effect over the shares at all.

Transferring shares during your lifetime

If you're looking to divide your shares between your children during your lifetime, this can usually be done through the share registry or via your broker using an off-market transfer form.

However, it's important to remember this means you would be effectively giving up your interest in your shareholdings during your lifetime.

Be aware, gifting shares while you're alive can trigger capital gains tax, as the Australian Taxation Office generally treats the transfer as if you sold the shares at market value at the time of the gift.

Leaving specific shares in your will

There are a number of ways shares can be dealt with under your will, it's all a matter of will-drafting and your wishes.

1. A will can deal with shares very precisely, naming a specific beneficiary. This is known as a specific gift. For example, it might say: "I give my shares in CSL Limited to my daughter Jane," or "I give my shares in BHP Group Ltd to my son David."
    
2. A will can also gift a specific number of shares. This can be useful when you are wanting to divide particular investments or a specific number of shares between beneficiaries, for example: "I give 500 shares in XYZ Ltd to my son."

Important factors to keep in mind

• It's wise to review your will periodically to ensure any specific gifts still reflect your intentions and remain practical to administer. If you make a specific gift of shares in your will but no longer hold those shares at the date of your death, the gift will generally fail.
• If your intention is to divide a shareholding equally between children, it's important to make sure the number of shares can be divided evenly (if you own an odd number of shares, one beneficiary will inevitably receive more than the other).
• If your shares are not specifically gifted, they usually form part of the residue of the estate, which is everything left after specific gifts, debts and expenses have been dealt with. A well-drafted will should include an express power allowing the executor to distribute assets in specie, which gives the executor greater flexibility. If the shares form part of the residue of the estate, the executor may:

1. sell the shares and divide the proceeds between the beneficiaries, or
2. transfer the shares directly to beneficiaries in the proportions set out in the will.

Hidden tax traps when inheriting shares

There may be tax consequences to consider when inheriting shares.

When you inherit shares, any tax payable will depend on when the original owner bought the shares.

If they were bought after September 20, 1985, you effectively step into their shoes and inherit their original cost base for tax purposes. If they were bought before that date, the shares are instead valued at their market price when the person died, which can change the tax outcome significantly.

In either case, where the deceased held the shares for more than 12 months, individual beneficiaries may be entitled to a 50% CGT discount on a later sale, regardless of how long they personally held the shares after inheriting them.

Be aware that if one beneficiary elects for their proportion of the shares to be sold by the estate while another beneficiary elects for theirs to be transferred to them in specie, this could result in an uneven distribution of value, depending on how the market moves between the date of death and the date of sale or transfer.

So, beneficiaries should get financial or tax advice before deciding what to do with their inherited shares.

A little planning goes a long way

Thoughtful planning now can make a significant difference to how smoothly your estate is administered later and can help avoid unintended outcomes for your beneficiaries.

Sound legal advice, and careful will drafting with regular reviews are important to make sure the plan works as intended.

Ultimately, a well-structured will helps ensure your investments pass smoothly to the next generation and avoids unnecessary complications for your executor and family.

The real story comes down to the core driver of any market, supply and demand. For property prices to fall significantly, you typically need either a collapse in demand or a surge in supply. Right now, neither is happening in Australia.

Demand remains strong. Migration continues to fuel population growth, meaning more people need housing. At the same time, unemployment has stayed relatively stable, so most homeowners are still earning an income and servicing their mortgages. Demand hasn't disappeared, it's quietly building.

However, the real pressure point is supply. Australia simply isn't building enough homes, and the gap is widening. Forecasts suggest the country could fall short of its targets by hundreds of thousands of dwellings over the coming years. Construction costs remain high, labour shortages persist, and many developers are stepping back as projects become less financially viable.

So, while some expect a wave of forced selling, the reality is there aren't enough properties available in the first place. When supply is this tight, prices don't tend to collapse. They hold up far better than many expect, and over time, they tend to push higher.

Interest rates are often seen as the tipping point, as higher repayments should force selling, but history tells a more nuanced story. In the late 1980s, interest rates in Australia rose above 15%, yet property prices still experienced strong growth. The key reason was that demand remained firm while supply stayed constrained.

That same dynamic is in play today. Higher rates can slow the market and take some heat out of prices, but they don't automatically trigger a crash, especially when people still need housing and there aren't enough homes to meet that demand.

The recession argument sounds logical, but for a property crash to occur, several conditions need to hit at once, widespread job losses, forced selling, and excess supply flooding the market. Right now, that combination simply isn't there. Instead, we're seeing population growth, ongoing government support, and a construction pipeline that continues to fall short.

That's why the idea of a major property crash keeps resurfacing but rarely plays out as expected. The market may have periods of weakness, and sentiment will shift, but the underlying imbalance between supply and demand remains.

At its core, Australia's housing market is dealing with a shortage, not a surplus, and until that changes in a meaningful way, prices are more likely to trend higher over time. Not in a straight line, and not without setbacks, but with a clear long-term upward bias.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 5%, followed by Utilities and Consumer Staples, both up more than 2%.

The worst-performing sectors include Materials, down more than 5%, followed by Information Technology, down more than 4%, and Healthcare, down more than 3%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Telix Pharmaceuticals, up more than 9%, followed by Woodside Energy Group, up more than 8%, and Challenger Limited, up more than 7%.

The worst-performing stocks include Pilbara Minerals, down more than 15%, followed by Northern Star Resources and WiseTech Global, both down more than 12%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All Ordinaries Index took another hit this week, finishing Thursday down 1.7% and marking a third consecutive week of losses. It's starting to feel like a fear-driven decline now, with sentiment clearly outweighing logic in the short term. That said, despite all the pressure, the market is still holding above the critical 8650 level, but only just.

We're now sitting roughly 8% down from the all-time high set in February, which is not unfamiliar territory. We saw a very similar move after the previous high back in October 2025, where the market also pulled back around 8% before eventually recovering to new highs. The difference this time is the speed and volatility of the move. Markets seem to be getting sharper, faster, and a lot more reactive to news flow.

It's the classic case of markets taking the stairs up and the elevator down. Fear tends to hit harder and faster than optimism, and that's exactly what we're seeing play out right now.

If you look at the broader backdrop, it's not hard to see why. The global situation feels tense. Every day there are new developments around energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and whether it's oil or gas, the result is the same, higher prices and more inflationary pressure. That uncertainty is keeping investors on edge and driving a lot of the recent selling.

But it's important to zoom out a little. Outside of this geopolitical tension, there are still areas of stability in the global economy. Markets aren't collapsing across the board, they're reacting to a specific set of risks, and history shows that when those risks begin to stabilise, markets can turn quite quickly. That turning point is often where the biggest opportunities present themselves.

From a technical perspective, the trend in the short term is still down. But we're now sitting right at a critical level, and this is where it gets interesting. The 8650 level continues to act as a line in the sand, and if it holds, the possibility of a rebound remains very much alive.

Seasonality also starts to come into play here. As we move toward April, which is typically one of the stronger months for the market, you must at least consider the potential for a recovery move. A push back toward the 9,000 level wouldn't be out of the question, even if it means the market ends up trading sideways for a period rather than trending strongly higher straight away.

Even in a sideways market, there are always opportunities. The difference is that they tend to favour those who are prepared, selective, and well positioned.

For now, the market is under pressure, sentiment is fragile, and volatility is elevated, but we're also at a point where things can shift quickly. The key is to stay focused, respect the levels, and be ready, because when the market does turn, it rarely gives much warning.

With war pushing energy markets around again, many people are asking the same question: What can I do to keep up with the rising costs?

Most households respond by tightening their budget and cutting back on expenses, but what if there's a better way, one that doesn't require you to be a professional investor?

Sometimes it's simply about recognising a few straightforward ideas and thinking a little differently about where your money sits.

Inflation often begins further up the economic chain. When oil, gas, metals and energy costs rise, those increases flow through almost everything we buy, from transport and groceries to electricity and manufacturing.

Consumers feel it at the checkout, but the companies producing those inputs may experience the opposite effect, with profits rising.

That's why energy and commodity producers often perform well when inflation runs hot. Instead of just paying higher prices at the petrol pump, some investors choose to own a small piece of the companies benefiting from these price increases.

During the commodity boom between 2003 and 2008, oil prices surged, and energy companies significantly outperformed the broader market, so consider companies like Woodside Energy and Santos, as well as uranium producers such as Paladin Energy.

Most companies struggle when inflation rises because their costs increase faster than they can raise prices. But some businesses are in a very different position.

Infrastructure companies, for example, often have contracts that allow them to increase prices automatically with inflation. Think toll roads, electricity networks or gas pipelines. When inflation rises, their revenue often does too.

Companies such as Transurban and APA Group operate assets where pricing can be linked directly to inflation or energy costs. Because these assets are already built and operating, rising revenue can translate into stronger cash flow relatively quickly.

Periods of geopolitical tension often make markets far more unpredictable. Wars, trade disputes and energy disruptions tend to push markets into waves of rallies and pullbacks. History shows this clearly.

During events such as the Gulf and Iraq War and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, markets didn't simply trend higher. They moved in sharp swings as investors tried to understand what was happening next.

For passive investors, that can feel uncomfortable, but for active investors and traders, volatility creates opportunity.

When markets move in waves rather than straight lines, there can be repeated short-term opportunities across commodities, energy stocks, currencies and other assets.

The reality is that inflation may remain part of the economic landscape for some time yet, but instead of constantly feeling like you're chasing rising prices, you can place yourself in a far more powerful position where those rising prices are working for you instead of against you.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 1%, followed by Financials, down more than 1% and Consumer Discretionary, down more than 2%.

The worst-performing sectors include Information Technology, down more than 7%, followed by Real Estate and Healthcare, both down more than 4%.

The best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Lynas Rare Earths, up more than 15%, followed by Whitehaven Coal, up more than 9%, and Insurance Australia Group, up more than 6%.

The worst-performing stocks include Orica Limited, down more than 14%, followed by Dyno Nobel Limited and Netwealth Group, both down more than 12%.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index was lower again this week, finishing Thursday down 2.57%. While we often focus on where the market closes for the week, the more interesting story this time wasn't the close; it was where the price traded during the week and where it eventually found support.

Let's go back to Monday, the 9th of March, which may end up being remembered as a significant day for the market. By the close, the index was down 2.88%, but at one point it had fallen as much as 4.4%.

The sharp sell-off followed reports that the United States had struck Iran's oil supply, sending oil prices surging roughly 20% in a single day.

That move alone wiped out all the gains the market had made so far this year, pushing the index back to levels we haven't seen since November 2025.

On the surface, a move like that can feel alarming, especially when headlines start talking about billions being wiped from the market.

But here's what really stood out to me. The market bounced around 8,650, an important level dating back to October 2024, when it marked the market's all-time high. What we're seeing now is that this level is acting as support.

This is where technical analysis becomes incredibly valuable, because it helps cut through the noise and emotion that comes with dramatic headlines.

While the news flow might suggest everything is falling apart, the chart is quietly telling us that the market is still respecting a key technical level.

For me, the 8650 level is now the line in the sand. As long as the price continues to hold above this level, the broader market structure remains intact. If we do see a break below it in the coming weeks, the next logical support level would likely sit closer to 8300.

That said, this isn't my preferred scenario at this stage.

Seasonally, March tends to be a relatively strong month for the market, and April is historically the second-bullish month of the year. Because of that, there's still a reasonable chance the market stabilises and begins to recover.

On the upside, the key level to watch is now 9000 points. If the market can push back above that level, it would suggest buyers are stepping back in, and the broader bullish momentum may resume.

The challenge is that 9000 has now become a well-established resistance level, so it's unlikely to break without a bit of a fight.

For now, the market may trade within a range as investors digest the latest geopolitical developments and the implications for global energy prices. But importantly, despite the volatility, the market is not in freefall, and in times like these, that's very good news.

In early February, Anthropic released a series of Claude Cowork enterprise plugins for departments across a business, including finance, legal, sales, and data analytics.

The immediate market response was dramatic; software-related indices fell 6% in one session and are down over 20% year to date, with individual companies in drawdowns exceeding 50%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index, which has heavy exposure to software companies, is in a 40% drawdown with Xero and WiseTech each down more than 60% from peaks.

The question for investors is whether this is a reasonable market response or an overreaction representing a buying opportunity.

Volatility can reflect uncertainty rather than a structural decline

This is not the first time an AI development has triggered a sharp and rapid market selloff.

In January 2025, Chinese startup DeepSeek released R1, an open-source large language model claiming to match leading US AI performance at a fraction of the cost.

Nvidia lost $588 billion in market capitalisation in a single session, the largest single-day loss for any company in US stock market history. The Nasdaq fell 3.1%. Within 48 hours, Nvidia had rebounded 9% and the tech sector posted its sharpest two-day recovery in over two years.

Since the initial selloff this time around, the S&P North American Technology Software Index has rebounded 14.4%, although it remains 25% below previous highs.

The pattern across both episodes is consistent. A new AI capability emerges, markets de-risk broadly, and stocks are indiscriminately affected, pricing in the fear of a potential future rather than a realised one.

History broadly supports these recoveries. Following sharp Nasdaq selloffs, the index has averaged a gain of 8.7% over the subsequent three months, trading positively 80% of the time.

Where the underlying demand for a sector remains structurally intact, acute bouts of competitive uncertainty have, more often than not, proven to be noise rather than signal. However, this is not a given. Selloffs occasionally reflect something more permanent, and investors should weigh that possibility seriously.

Not all software is equal

What markets have correctly identified is that uncertainty around software earnings is higher. When you are less confident in the future impact of AI on software profits, the discount rate investors apply goes up.

Near-term earnings pressure is real. SAP fell 16% and ServiceNow dropped 11% on earnings resulted in February because enterprises are reducing seats rather than adding them, and the per-seat pricing model underpinning SaaS economics for two decades is under threat. Gartner estimates 35% of point-product software-as-a-service (SaaS) tools will be replaced by AI agents by 2030.

But the conclusion that enterprises will stop buying software does not reflect how large organisations operate. Businesses dependent on essential platforms are not going to ask a junior employee to rebuild their technology stack from scratch. The February selloff did not make that distinction. Platforms with deep data moats that are essential to workflows were impacted as if they faced the same fate as genuinely vulnerable point solutions.

Cybersecurity is a clear example. As AI tools become more powerful, they expand the attack surface rather than reduce it.

AI has introduced new threat tactics including prompt injection attacks and agent impersonation, creating new challenges for enterprises to navigate. Leading platforms like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are well positioned here, embedding AI within their own systems to proactively identify and respond to threats in real time. Enterprises are unlikely to replace that with internally built tools or unproven alternatives. For example, Claude Code Security remains a research preview with no production track record.

Enterprise software is similarly embedded in the functioning of modern businesses. Scalable platforms managing data, workflows and compliance carry the same characteristics, proprietary datasets, deep workflow integration and switching costs that make replacement a significant operational risk. AI integration is more likely to enhance the importance of these platforms than to eliminate them.

ETF investors are responding with conviction

Trading data suggests many Australian investors interpreted the sell-off as a buying opportunity. In fact, technology-related ETFs saw a 132.5% increase in buying in February compared to January. Total buying rose to $146 million in February, up from $90 million the month prior. As a percentage of all equities ETF buying, technology allocations climbed to 6.8% in February, up from 4.2% in January (Betashares, IRESS).

The Betashares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF received a record $107 million in net flows in February 2026. That figure was three times higher than the previous monthly net flow record set in December 2025, and five times higher than inflows in January.

We also saw increased interest in exposures such as the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF, showing continued conviction in essential segments of the technology ecosystem.

The case for diversified exposure

Identifying which software companies emerge from this period as winners and which face structural decline will be genuinely difficult. Out of hundreds of companies that listed during the dot-com boom, one, Amazon, went on to substantially reward long-term investors.

This is where diversified exposure becomes relevant. Rather than concentrating risk in individual names, ETFs provide exposure to a broad basket of companies positioned across AI-driven innovation. As leading companies grow and their market capitalisation rises, their weight within an index increases naturally, investors gain greater exposure to emerging winners over time while limiting damage from those that do not adapt.

Whether the February selloff ultimately proves an entry point depends on how the structural questions around AI and software resolve.

What is clearer is that the demand for digital infrastructure, cybersecurity and critical enterprise software remains intact. For investors with a long-term view, diversified exposure to that theme, without needing to precisely identify individual winners, may be the most sensible way to navigate the uncertainty ahead.

Apple vs Samsung is a rivalry most consumers will understand. Apple shares have returned about 10% over the past 12 months, while Samsung is up more than 200%.

For many retail investors, that feels counterintuitive.

Apple has a towering ecosystem and brand, while Samsung is often viewed purely as a producer of smartphones and consumer electronics.

But this simple comparison is a useful prism for understanding how the artificial intelligence (AI) story has evolved, and where capital may be heading next.

The first phase of the AI trade was concentrated in the United States, where the big players included a handful of AI chip designers and hyperscalers as demand for model training and inference surged, even as global supply chain leaders such as TSMC, ASML and Samsung underpinned the hardware build-out.

That made sense in the early innings of a technology cycle as investors sought pure-play compute exposure and the platforms enabling it.

But AI has moved beyond borders, and global equity markets in 2026 are reflecting this shift.

Today, the value creation is playing out across Asia as well as the US, with companies like Samsung at the centre of crucial components such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging.

Capital is rotating into markets like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, and India as investors look for the next beneficiaries in the supply chain and the infrastructure required to scale AI.

Other names worth noting are include SK Hynix, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

Why Samsung is outperforming Apple in the AI build-out

The so-called "SaaSpocalypse" isn't just about AI displacing software features.

It's about the repricing of duration risk. Higher US real yields, and even a reset higher in Japanese yields, have lifted hurdle rates.

Software-as-a-service (SaaS) models, which are often valued on long-dated cash flows and steep terminal growth assumptions, are mechanically more exposed to higher discount rates.

By contrast, many hardware and infrastructure names monetise nearer-term cash flows backed by tangible capacity additions.

In this context, Samsung's leadership in memory and packaging sits closer to cash-flow immediacy and capital certainty than a long-duration software multiple.

Until recently, the AI story has been largely about compute.

We paid a premium for the designers of the most advanced GPUs and the platforms that provisioned them.

Now the second phase is being driven by constraints, which is broadening the opportunity set.

We're seeing tightening in memory supply, a sharp rise in storage requirements, and a step-function increase in electricity demand for data centres that the existing grid was not designed to handle.

The second phase of AI: From compute demand to system constraints

These aren't isolated pain points.

They are signals that AI is transitioning from a pure compute story into a full-stack infrastructure build-out spanning semiconductors and the physical plant that powers them.

Apple's recent softness reflects a mix of factors from macro duration repricing weighing on long-dated growth assets to the market's reassessment of where the next incremental AI dollar is earned.

Apple remains a formidable platform company, but the centre of gravity for AI monetisation has tilted, for now, toward the components and capacity that make large-scale AI possible.

Samsung, with leverage to memory and advanced packaging, sits at the junction where today's constraints translate into near-term revenue and pricing power.

Put simply, the AI story has globalised and broadened.

The next phase is about resolving constraints across both the digital (semiconductors) and physical (power and data centre) layers.

Memory shortages are the canary in the coal mine, signalling that capital is rotating from who designs the chip to who enables the system.

For investors, that means looking beyond a handful of US names to a diversified set of opportunities spanning the semiconductor value chain and the infrastructure that powers it.

In that context, Apple vs Samsung isn't a popularity contest but a map of where AI value is accruing today, and where it's likely to compound next.

What investors should watch

• Memory supply and pricing: Tightness here is a real-time barometer of system constraints.
• Power and grid: Data centre power procurement, grid interconnection queues, and cooling technologies will increasingly drive capex cycles.
• Geographic dispersion: Follow the capex across Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, and selective US and EU corridors as the supply chain regionalises and scales. 

The question now is whether this is just another short-term spike or the beginning of something bigger?

To answer this question, let's wind back to the early 2000s. Following September 11, 2001, oil was trading near $17 a barrel. As conflict spread across the Middle East and global demand surged, prices climbed relentlessly to $147 by 2008.

Much of that move happened relatively quickly between 2005 and 2008, when oil surged by around 170%. If crude oil were to make a similar move from today's level near $75, it would push prices close to $200 a barrel.

Since 2008, oil has struggled to stay above $100 a barrel during crises, and this is important. A major reason has been the rise of U.S. shale production, which tends to increase supply whenever prices surge.

However, that ceiling only holds when supply chains remain intact, and right now, spare oil production capacity is quite healthy. This fact alone raises the argument for $100 being the ceiling for oil, but here comes the big what-if?

Could weakening global supply chains push crude oil higher?

The world's biggest supply route, the Strait of Hormuz, is under serious threat. This narrow shipping lane carries about 20% of the world's oil supply. Maritime insurers have begun pulling war-risk coverage for vessels operating in the Gulf as tensions escalate, leaving many tankers unable to move through the region.

At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly becoming a target. Iranian drones recently struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest oil processing facility and a major export hub. Add to that Venezuela's production constraints, Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and the possibility that China may need to compete for Iranian barrels on the open market, and suddenly, global supply looks far thinner than many assume.

From a technical perspective, crude appears to be breaking out of the downtrend that has dominated the last few years, and if the price can hold above $80 a barrel, a move back to $100 per barrel is entirely realistic if tensions persist. Reaching $200 would require a major supply disruption, but history shows that when geopolitics collides with energy supply, prices can move faster than most people expect.

For Australians, higher oil prices feed directly into petrol, freight, and food prices, and into inflation, which can keep pressure on the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates higher. For investors and traders, however, volatility in the energy market creates opportunity, particularly in energy stocks, which have lagged the market for years and may now be entering a powerful macro cycle. So, stay tuned.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?

The best-performing sectors include Energy, up more than 7%, followed by Consumer Staples, up under 1% and Communication Services, down just more than half a per cent. The worst-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary and Materials, both down more than 4%, followed by Real Estate, down more than 3%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Ampol Limited, up more than 13%, followed by Whitehaven Coal, up more than 11% and Santos Limited, up more than 8%. The worst-performing stocks include Life360, down more than 12%, followed by Eagers Automotive, down more than 10% and Challenger Limited, down more than 9%.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

This week, sellers took control, pushing the All-Ordinaries Index down 2.8% by Thursday's close. It marks the sharpest pullback so far this year, as rising fears of a prolonged conflict with Iran weighed on investor sentiment. The decline comes just one week after the market printed a fresh all-time high of 9435 points, with the index now trading back near the 9100 level and potentially heading toward support around 9,000.

Most sectors are lower for the week, although Energy stood out as the clear exception. Surging oil and gas prices lifted the sector, with related areas such as uranium and coal stocks also benefiting from the move higher in energy markets.

You may have seen headlines claiming that "billions have been wiped off the market" or that the stock market has "crashed"; however, context matters. The entire Australian share market was worth roughly $3.34 trillion as of January 2026. So, when media reports highlight $70 billion lost in a day, it sounds dramatic, but it represents only a small fraction of the total market value.

From a technical perspective, the current pullback is not yet cause for concern. The market appears to have simply retraced back toward the natural upward momentum that has been in place since the November 2025 low. As long as that level holds, particularly above 9000, the broader outlook remains constructive. Should the index break below 9000, the next major support sits around 8800. On the upside, a move back above 9400 would be the next step toward reopening the path to the 10,000 level by year-end.

As I've said before, 2026 is shaping up to be a trader's market. Active investors who focus on sectors and individual opportunities are likely to outperform passive strategies. This year, the tide won't lift every stock, so staying selective, following price action, and ignoring the noise from headlines will be key to staying ahead of the crowd.

At the same time, Australia's annual GDP growth has slowed to its weakest level since the early 1990s recession (excluding the pandemic). That alone should raise eyebrows.

Growth is already fragile, households are stretched, and wage gains are lagging inflation. Now add a new layer of risk referred to as artificial intelligence, and we should start to be really concerned.

WiseTech Global, one of Australia's major tech employers, recently announced plans to cut around 2000 roles as it pivots toward AI-driven automation, and this is not an isolated case.

Globally, companies are reorganising around AI systems that can perform tasks once handled by accountants, analysts, marketers and administrators.

The macro risk is simple: if AI meaningfully reduces white-collar employment at the same time growth is already at multi-decade lows, incomes weaken. When this occurs, spending slows, which is how recessions start.

That's what makes the current environment so fragile: weak growth, persistent inflation limiting policy flexibility, and the possibility of structural job losses all colliding at once. In past slowdowns, the solution was relatively straightforward: cut interest rates, stimulate demand and get credit flowing again.

Cutting rates is not a simple solution.

If inflation remains stubborn, aggressive rate cuts risk reigniting price pressures, and if job losses are structural, driven by automation rather than a normal business cycle, lower rates won't magically bring those roles back. So, what do you do?

Ease policy and risk inflation flaring up again, or hold firm on rates and risk unemployment rising into already weak growth?

That is the dilemma, and it's what makes this potential downturn very different from past ones. But what's even more concerning is that Australia isn't having this conversation.

If we are to protect our future, however, there's only one path forward: recognise the change for what it is, adapt aggressively, and stop pretending AI is just a productivity tool.

It's shaping up to be the biggest economic force of our generation, and if we sleepwalk through it, the next recession won't just hurt the markets; it will have a serious impact on all Australians.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Consumer Staples, up more than 7%, followed by Materials, up more than 6% and Information Technology, up more than 2%.

The worst-performing sectors include Consumer Discretionary, down more than 3%, followed by Utilities and Real Estate, both down more than 2%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Pilbara Minerals, up more than 25%, followed by Mineral Resources, up more than 17% and Woolworths Group, up more than 16%.

The worst-performing stocks include Worley Limited, down more than 12%, followed by Lendlease Group, down more than 10% and Qantas Airways, down more than 8%.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index has officially made a new all-time high, as it pushed through 9414 points to close Thursday more than 1% higher. With blue skies ahead, the conversation about the market rising to 10,000 points is no longer speculative; it's realistic.

What strengthens that case is seasonality. March and April are traditionally strong months for the All Ords, with April ranking alongside July as one of the best-performing months of the year. That historical tailwind adds fuel to an already bullish technical picture.

That said, fresh highs can attract short-term profit-taking. Some investors who have been waiting patiently may lock in gains, which could lead to a brief pullback. However, the base that formed just under the previous high throughout February at 9000 points, combined with consistent price activity near 9300 since August, now establishes two levels as the key defence zone. If buyers hold above the 9300 or 9000 point level, this breakout remains intact.

What's also encouraging is the composition of this move. This week's strength was driven largely by Consumer Staples and Materials. Notably, traditional growth leaders such as Financials and Energy didn't need to carry the market, which leaves room for rotation. With the index in new territory, capital could now flow back into growth sectors, adding another layer of upside momentum in the months ahead.

As the reporting season winds down, the market shifts from reacting to results to pricing in future growth, which often creates opportunities. With earnings now on the table, investors can identify companies that delivered strong financials, maintained healthy balance sheets, and showed positive momentum, positioning them ahead of the next earnings cycle in August.

The breakout is here. Now the focus shifts to whether buyers can defend it and build on it.

The reason behind such large movements is often due to whether the company's results for the last six months were above or below the expectations of the analysts who cover the stock.

I lead a small division in an accounting firm and I know firsthand how hard it is to 'budget' for the next six months. So trying to work out within a few percentage points what the earnings of a listed company will be, is at the Olympic end of degrees of difficulty.

What has reporting season become so volatile?

Over the last few years, these reporting periods seem to have become ever more volatile. There are some sound reasons for this, including that the pace of information is reaching light speed, and algorithmic trading means that share prices are moving the instant that information is released.

We don't yet fully understand how the use of AI will change how shares are traded.

However, some things don't change and that is our behaviour as investors.

We tend to feel financial losses more strongly than gains, so a sudden drop in a share price will often have us reaching for the sell button. We might not understand why the share price has fallen, but the fact that is has fallen becomes the reason to sell.

What's the difference between volatility and risk?

This is where the distinction between volatility and risk needs to be clear. Volatility is the movement of a share price. Risk is the possibility of permanent loss of capital.

Benjamin Graham captured this distinction succinctly: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

Reporting season is when the voting machine dominates. Investors respond to earnings hits and misses, subtle changes in tone, and shifts in guidance. Expectations are reset quickly, and prices adjust just as quickly.

But over time, what drives returns for investors is not how sharply a stock moves in a single week but rather the underlying economics of the business. Can it grow earnings sustainably? Does it generate strong cash flow? Does it possess a durable competitive advantage that protects margins?

Warren Buffett often refers to this competitive advantage as a "moat". Consider a high-quality company with a strong brand or cost advantage. If it misses earnings slightly due to temporary cost pressures, the share price may fall sharply for a few days. That is volatility. It is uncomfortable, but if long-term earnings power remains intact, intrinsic value is largely unchanged.

Risk is usually a result of change, such as a change in management or strategy. There are many examples of stocks that have made a major acquisition to then kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

For long-term investors, confusing volatility with risk can be costly. Selling a quality business after a temporary earnings disappointment can lock in losses and forfeit the recovery that often follows once conditions normalise. Equally, ignoring genuine deterioration because a price fall "looks like just volatility" can be equally harmful. The challenge is to distinguish between temporary noise and permanent impairment.

That requires focusing on fundamentals rather than headlines: balance sheet strength, competitive positioning, pricing power and long-term earnings trajectory. Share prices will move around those fundamentals, sometimes aggressively. But over extended periods, returns are anchored to growth in earnings and cash flow.

Why reporting season should be seen as information, not danger

Reporting season should therefore be viewed as an information event, not a threat. It provides clarity about which businesses are executing and which are struggling.

February and August will likely always feel very noisy for investors. Single-day moves will continue to capture attention.

But volatility in itself is not the enemy; permanent erosion of a company's earning power is. Keeping that distinction in mind allows investors to remain steady when the voting machine is loud, and to stay focused on what the weighing machine will ultimately measure: sustainable profits and long-term value creation.

Why you should buy Essity shares

Essity is a great business with defensive characteristics (safe balance sheet, staple products), high cash flow generation and low single digit structural top line growth. Margin (and return on invested capital) currently looks elevated, but attractive valuation (EV/sales) compensates for that risk.

In a base case scenario, there is a reasonably clean path to an 8%-9% per annum return, even with the margin going backwards towards the long-term average. The markets they operate in are relatively concentrated and they are the market leader or #2 player in 90% of cases with stable to growing market share for most.

Essity dominates Europe (about 60% of group sales) and Latin America (about 20% of group sales). Their closest peers for tissue paper are Kimberly Clark (mainly US) and UniCharm (mainly Asia) as well as P&G (for feminine care and nappies).

What Essity does  

Essity is a Swedish multinational company specialising in hygiene and health products headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Essity's range of products includes personal care items, consumer tissue products, professional hygiene solutions, and medical care goods. The company is known for its well-established brands like TENA, Tork, and Libero. They have around 35,000 employees and operate in about 150 countries.

Strategy and outlook  

Essity is deliberately pivoting from margin defense to volume recovery: management is reallocating savings into advertising and promotion and selective price architecture to gain share, explicitly accepting near-term margin volatility while keeping the more than 3% organic growth ambition intact.

The other long-term target of a 15% operating margin also remains. Management is hosting a Capital Markets Day in May where an adjusted strategic framework could be expected, but unlikely to significantly alter the overall operating framework.

Returns 

Focusing on FY25, the company delivered 1% organic revenue growth, 14.1% margin and returned about 9 billion Swedish Krona (SEK) via dividend/buybacks (about 5.5% yield), paid down debt to 1.0x EBITDA (from 3x in 2023), and, after the price drop post results, traded on just 12.8x trailing P/E which is towards the lower end of relative valuation to Household Products Sector.

Capital allocation will likely continue prioritising dividend/buybacks (dividends increase by 6% proposed to 8.75 Swedish Krona and there are likely further buybacks as management admitted valuation is a real constraint on mergers and acquisitions). Free cash flow, assuming no growth, is at around 11.5 billion Swedish Krona, so a very supportive about 6% yield currently.

The SEK has strengthened significantly over the previous year, up 21% y/y. Despite this strength, EPS in SEK has grown in FY25 year-on-year and is highest in company history (partly helped by share count reduction).

All the hype and promises, as well as the glossy investor presentations, February is when the numbers hit the table, and the market delivers its verdict.

So, the real question is this: do you want to be the investor reacting to headlines, or the one positioned before the market moves? This is the moment where everyday investors either get trapped by noise or get paid for preparation.

The reality is that most people treat reporting season like a headline sport. They scan the profit numbers, read a media summary, then rush to buy or panic sell.

But what if that's exactly why most investors underperform during reporting season? That approach turns portfolios into guessing games, but a smarter approach turns reporting season into opportunities.

Here are my three key tips for navigating reporting season properly.

Tip one: Start with the previous report, not the latest headline

Companies constantly leave breadcrumbs: forward guidance, margin warnings, expansion plans, and cost pressures.

Management tells you where the risks and growth are building long before the market reacts. Quarterly updates often reveal trend direction even earlier. If reading full reports feels heavy, run them through an AI summary tool to extract key risks, forecasts, and balance sheet changes in minutes.

This alone puts you ahead of most retail investors. Markets often overreact when reality slightly misses perfection.

Tip two: Read the whole story, not the loudest line

Investors regularly fixate on one "bad" number and ignore three powerful positives sitting right next to it.

Revenue growth, improving margins, falling debt, and rising forward orders matter more than a single cost spike or a short-term earnings wobble.

Strong businesses are often sold down on emotion, only to recover once cooler heads review the full report. Overreactions create entry prices that don't stay cheap for long.

Tip three: Timing decides whether a good idea becomes a good trade

A strong report does not automatically mean a good buy price. Shares often spike straight into technical resistance, where early buyers take profits, and late chasers get trapped.

Price charts show where supply and demand actually sit. They reveal trend strength, exhaustion and breakout levels.

Buying without checking the chart is like driving without depth perception. Reports describe the past, while charts reveal behaviour in the present. Entries made with timing discipline outperform entries made with excitement.

Reporting season rewards patience, context and timing, whilst preparation beats prediction every time.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Financials, up more than 2%, followed by Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary, both up more than 1%. The worst-performing sectors include Information Technology, down more than 8%, followed by Utilities, down almost 3% and Materials, down more than 1%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Amcor Limited, up more than 11%, followed by Pinnacle Investment Management Group, up more than 7% and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, up more than 6%. The worst-performing stocks include WiseTech Global Limited, down more than 13%; followed by HUB24 Limited and Xero Limited, both down more than 12%

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index got off to a shaky start this week, with Monday delivering a sharp 1% fall, the largest single-day decline since November 2025. But the early weakness turned out to be far less important than what followed.

From Tuesday onward, buyers stepped in with conviction, driving a steady recovery that saw the index finish Thursday almost exactly where it began for the week. That rebound from the 9000 level sends a clear message: demand remains strong, and buyers are prepared to defend key support.

From a technical perspective, the levels are now very clear. A decisive break above 9300 would confirm a return of upside momentum and open the door to further gains.

Conversely, if the index falls below 9000, it will signal short-term weakness and increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward 8800 or lower.

For now, support has held, and momentum has stabilised, but this range is the critical battleground in the sessions ahead.

Sector performance largely reflected the broader macro backdrop.

Financials led the market following the Reserve Bank of Australia's 0.25% rate increase, a move that generally supports bank and insurance margins. Consumer Staples also performed well, pointing to some defensive positioning ahead of reporting season. The sector is particularly interesting after an extended period of consolidation, with major names such as Woolworths set to report, when both volatility and opportunity are likely to increase.

Information Technology continued to lag, extending its relative underperformance. Rather than trying to catch falling knives in the weakest areas of the market, the smarter approach is to focus on sectors and stocks that are already showing relative strength and constructive price structures.

With reporting season fast approaching, the environment favours disciplined, chart-driven decision-making. Expect sharper sector rotations, quicker moves, and far more stock-specific opportunities. This is the phase where preparation pays off, the charts matter most, and the real opportunities begin to reveal themselves.

For now, good luck and good trading.

If you've only started investing in the last few years, today's market backdrop can feel confusing.

Markets are hitting highs, optimism is back, and every second headline seems to promise the next big thing. What we're in right now is broadly described as a bull market - a period of sustained rising prices, improving sentiment and growing confidence among investors.

Globally, equities have been trending higher since the market lows of late 2023, meaning we've been in this upswing for close to two years. Bull markets don't move in a straight line, but they are typically supported by improving economic growth, easing inflation pressures and expectations that interest rates are closer to peaking than rising.

Where things can get confusing is around the different actions of central banks around the world. For example, in Australia we have just experienced our first rate hike since 2023. Meanwhile, in the US the talk is around rates potentially coming down.

What makes this environment particularly challenging is the sheer amount of noise.

Markets now react instantly to economic data, central bank commentary, earnings results and geopolitical developments.

News travels fast, narratives shift quickly, and sentiment can flip in days, sometimes hours. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, election cycles and policy uncertainty add another layer of volatility, reminding us that markets are forward-looking but not always predictable. Sharp pullbacks can occur even in strong bull markets, often without warning. For newer investors, this can feel unsettling.

But volatility isn't a sign that something is broken. It's the price of admission for long-term returns.

This environment is often described as "risk-on". That means investors are more willing to take risk, favouring shares over cash, growth assets over defensive ones, and higher-risk segments of the market in search of returns. Risk-on periods can be rewarding, but they can also encourage behaviour that undermines long-term success.

Bull markets don't end because people stay disciplined. They end because people abandon the process.

Here are my three tips for investing when markets are moving quickly.

1. Tune out the noise

Bull markets amplify everything: headlines, social media chatter and emotional decision-making. The real risk isn't missing out but reacting to every market wobble or hot tip. A practical habit is to reduce how often you check your portfolio and to be selective about where you get information.

Long-term investing is about consistency, not constant action. Creating some distance from the noise makes it easier to stay focused on your goals, make calm decisions, and let time and compounding do the work.

2. Stick to your plan

Decades of research show that asset allocation explains far more about investment outcomes than picking the right stock. Diversifying across asset classes, sectors and geographies matters more than trying to outsmart the market.

Long-term investing is not linear and even the best designed portfolios will experience drawdowns. Thoughtful asset allocation acts like a seatbelt during turbulence. It won't stop the bumps, but it's there to protect you so you can stay invested and reach your destination over time.

If your portfolio only works when markets are rising, it's not a strategy. It's a position.

A clear allocation framework also helps remove emotion from decision-making, providing discipline when markets test our patience and our confidence. By spreading risk intentionally, investors improve their resilience, reduce regret, and increase the likelihood of sticking to their guns through inevitable periods of uncertainty.

3. Don't confuse a rising market with a rising risk tolerance

Bull markets make investors feel braver than they really are. It's all fun and games until the price drops, right? Be honest with yourself about how much risk you can handle.

The more important question isn't how much risk you're comfortable with emotionally, but how much risk you can actually afford to take.

Strong returns can hide problems and tempt investors to push too far.

Thinking about timeframes, income security and cash needs upfront makes it far easier to stay the course.

February reporting season is here, the time of year when companies do a victory lap to celebrate strong earnings or do their best to put a positive spin on underwhelming results.

For the retail investor, staying abreast of reporting season is part responsible, informed investing.

And even if you're not one of the 7.7 million Australians who invest in ASX shares, the majority of Aussies are exposed to listed companies through their superannuation.

What is reporting season?

Under the Corporations Act 2001 and Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) Listing Rules, ASX-listed companies must provide a full company report to shareholders at least twice a year, within two months of the end of their balance sheet date.

This includes a director's report (including a remuneration report), a corporate governance statement, a financial report, and an auditor's report on the latter.

Because most companies have balance sheet dates of June 30, half-year results are usually released in February while most of the reporting season action takes place in August.

Why does reporting season matter for investors?

While some investments such as property provide full transparency on a near-daily basis, equities only provide a daily share price and periodic company announcements. The nuances of a company's position can often only be appreciated through annual reports.

Through annual reports, investors can understand, among other things, a company's growth ambitions, risk appetite, and whether any dividend distributions are sustainable.

An annual report will also outline a company's strategic priorities, its approach to corporate governance and, increasingly, its commitment to sustainability.

What is a financial report?

The financial report is the thing investors look most closely at during reporting season, as it provides a snapshot of the company's full financial position.

It will include the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income (sometimes referred to as a profit and loss statement), the statement of financial position (sometimes referred to as a balance sheet), the statement of changes in equity, and a cash flow statement.

Professional investors, and serious retail investors, then use this information to generate ratios and analysis that can grade the company, such as return on investment (ROI), return on equity (ROE), liquidity ratios, and discounted cash flow (DCI).

Of course, the financial results need to be taken in the context of a company's point of development. If it's in a growth phase, for instance, profit may be deliberately suppressed as the company diverts funds towards growth, whether organic or through acquisitions.

What other ASX announcements should investors watch?

Annual and half-year reports aren't the only times investors will get information about publicly listed companies.

The ASX requires that listed companies disclose any information that has a reasonable chance of moving a share price up or down.

According to the ASX: "Once an entity is or becomes aware of any information concerning it that a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the entity's securities, the entity must immediately tell ASX that information."

He has spoken openly about U.S. security interests in Greenland, pushed for tighter pressure on Iran's energy trade, and moved to re-engage with Venezuela's oil sector after years of isolation.

On the surface, these moves look scattered, but in reality, they form a clear pattern. This is not about diplomacy or headlines; it's about energy and who controls it.

So, let's take a deep dive into what is fuelling this global resource rush and what it means for the Australian mining sector.

For decades, the global energy system was built around sourcing the cheapest supply possible.

Efficiency mattered more than resilience, and energy security was assumed rather than protected. That model no longer works in a world defined by geopolitical rivalry, fragile supply chains and rising conflict risk.

Trump's actions reflect a shift away from a price-first energy policy toward a control-first strategy.

Greenland matters because it anchors Arctic security and holds vast reserves of rare-earth elements and other critical minerals essential for advanced weapons, satellites, AI infrastructure, and next-generation manufacturing.

Venezuela matters because it sits on some of the world's largest oil reserves at a time when reliable, politically aligned supply is becoming more valuable than cheap barrels from unstable regions. Iran matters because it remains central to global energy flows and some of the world's most sensitive shipping routes.

Taken together, these regions represent leverage points in a system that is no longer stable.

The renewed focus signals that access to energy and raw materials is again being treated as a national security priority, not just an economic one.

This shift is unfolding alongside an intensifying race for technological dominance between the West and the East, particularly in the race toward general AI, where many believe the first country to reach it will secure global dominance.

Advanced military systems, data centres and AI models all depend on vast, reliable energy supplies, and technological leadership is impossible without control over the resources that power them.

That is why this matters directly to Australia.

Australia combines political stability, deep mineral reserves and world-class mining and engineering capability.

As global powers move to secure supply chains away from hostile or unreliable regions, Australia becomes increasingly strategic. Companies like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are no longer just exposed to commodity cycles.

They now sit at the centre of a global effort to rebuild industrial capacity and secure energy. Engineering firms such as Worley also stand to benefit as capital flows into mining, energy and infrastructure projects.

For everyday Australians, this is not abstract geopolitics. It flows through superannuation returns, employment opportunities and national income.

Markets will remain volatile, and headlines will shift, but the direction is clear. Energy, resources and critical minerals are back at the centre of global power, and those who understand this shift will be better positioned as the next cycle unfolds.

What are the best and worst-performing sectors this week?   

The best-performing sectors include Materials, up more than 4%; Energy, up more than 2.5%; and Consumer Discretionary, up under 2.5%. The worst-performing sectors include Utilities and Information Technology, both down more than 2.5%, followed by Communication Services, down under half a%.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Amcor, up more than 400%, followed by Light & Wonder Inc, up more than 17% and Whitehaven Coal, up more than 12%. The worst-performing stocks include Life360, down more than 11%; Block Inc, down more than 6%; and Insurance Australia Group, down more than 5%.

What's next for the Australian stock market? 

The All-Ordinaries Index has delivered strong performance so far this week, rising more than 1.5% and signalling a return to bullish momentum.

The move has been led decisively by the Materials sector, which surged more than 4%, while Energy provided additional support with gains exceeding 2%.

This price action reinforces an important theme for the year ahead: market returns are increasingly sector-driven, making selectivity and disciplined stock analysis more critical than ever.

The All Ords is now trading above the key 9100 level, an area that has previously acted as a significant barrier.

How the market behaves around this zone will be key in determining whether the rally can extend over the coming months.

After such a strong advance, a period of consolidation or sideways movement would be a healthy and entirely normal outcome if resistance begins to emerge.

Crucially, the broader trend remains firmly intact. The market continues to respect the upward structure established from the November 2025 low, reinforcing confidence that the primary trend remains bullish.

On balance, the weight of evidence suggests the market can continue to push higher into year-end, with the potential to challenge fresh all-time highs.

That said, investors should remain prepared for elevated volatility.

Given last year's events and the ongoing uncertainties ahead, sharp and sudden market swings are likely to persist.

Overall, conditions remain constructive, and for disciplined investors who manage risk carefully and stay selective, this environment continues to offer attractive opportunities.

This week on the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Tom Watson is joined by Jun Bei Liu, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at Ten Cap, to discuss the key factors likely to influence local markets in the year ahead and the sectors worth watching.

00:00 Introduction

01:19 Reflecting on the surprises and volatility of 2025

04:11 Previewing 2026: Key themes for Australian equities

10:01 Sector and company insights for 2026

11:01 US equities outlook

13:38 Final thoughts on the year ahead

15:00 Conclusion

Listen to this episode of Friends With Money

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Friends With Money podcast FAQ

What is the Friends With Money podcast?

Friends With Money is a weekly personal finance podcast by Money magazine, offering expert insights on investing, budgeting, superannuation, property, and other money strategies for everyday Australians.

Where can I listen to the podcast?

You can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube (with closed captions available).

Who hosts Friends With Money?

Episodes are hosted by Vanessa Walker and Tom Watson from Money magazine, featuring expert guests and real conversations about money.

Is the podcast suitable for beginners?

Yes! It's designed to be accessible for beginners while still offering valuable insights for seasoned investors.

What topics does the podcast cover?

The Friends With Money podcast covers topics including banking, property, budgeting, superannuation, investing, saving, insurance, employment, travel and more.

How often are new episodes released?

New episodes are released weekly, so you can stay up to date with the latest financial tips and trends.

Can I watch episodes with captions?

Yes, full episodes with closed captions are available on YouTube.

Why subscribe to the Friends With Money podcast?

Boost your financial literacy anytime, anywhere with the Friends With Money podcast from Money magazine. Whether you're commuting, working out, or relaxing at home, this weekly podcast makes it easy to grow your money knowledge on the go.

Each episode dives into real conversations about money - how it's earned, shared, saved, and grown - with tips and insights that make finance simple and relatable. Perfect for beginners and seasoned investors alike, it's your go-to guide for building better financial habits.

The turnaround started when Jamie Odell and Toni Korsanos joined the board from Aristocrat and injected fresh energy and direction into LNW. Since 2020, LNW has been cutting debt, ramping up research and development, and reclaiming its competitive edge, especially in the US which is the world's biggest gaming market.

The numbers tell the story of a rejuvenated company: AU$1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2023, aiming for AU$1.4 billion in 2025, and a bold target of AU$2 billion by 2028.

What's under the hood?

The business is largely powered by three revenue sources:

• Gaming: The heart of the global business is casino poker (slot) machines, systems, and table games. The strategy? Lease machines for steady, higher-margin revenue and keep rolling out new games that players love.
• SciPlay: If you've played a social casino game on your phone, you've probably tried SciPlay, LNW's digital arm. It adopts a freemium model that keeps users engaged and spending, with impressive growth and healthy margins.
• iGaming: As online gaming takes off in the US, LNW is leading the charge in online slots (pokies) content. This segment is set for double-digit growth and LNW's content pipeline is ready to capture the opportunity.

The cloud over the table

The biggest issue hanging over LNW is the ongoing legal battle with Aristocrat over the Dragon Train slot series.

Those machines have already been pulled from casino floors, and Aristocrat claims the disputed mathematical logic has been used in other games too.

Patent disputes in gaming aren't rare, and most settlements in this sector range from a few million to tens of millions of dollars.

The big payouts - hundreds of millions - are unusual. In our view, the current discount to Aristocrat represents over A$3 billion in value and compensates for any negative outcome from the court cases.

Why we like LNW in our portfolio

The market has long admired Aristocrat as an industry benchmark, but in our view, Light & Wonder's story is now just as compelling.

It is a business with similar earnings growth but trading at about a 30% discount - a rare value opportunity.

​​​​

They are full of anticipation, hope, and the occasional curious check under the tree to see what presents have their name on it.

With US share markets hitting fresh record highs on the back of strong AI momentum and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, investors are once again asking a familiar end-of-year question: could a Santa Claus Rally be just around the corner, and could Australia join the festivities?

What is a Santa Claus Rally?

The idea of a Santa Claus Rally may sound festive, but it has a surprisingly consistent track record. The term refers to the tendency for share markets to rise in the final weeks of December and into early January.

While it's not guaranteed every year, it's common enough that investors pay close attention as the year draws to a close.

Looking back over the past 75 years of Australian share market data, December and January have consistently stood out as two of the strongest months.

On average, December has returned 1.7% while January has delivered monthly gains of 1.9% placing them among the best-performing months of the year.

Zooming out further, the eight-week period leading into the end of January has been positive around 79% of the time, compared with an average success rate of just 56% across other periods of the year.

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the consistency of this seasonal pattern helps explain why investors continue to watch this period so closely.

The Santa Claus Rally is often driven by a combination of seasonal factors, which usually sees the year-end season be favourable for share markets.

First, there's year-end optimism. Investors tend to look ahead to the new year with a more positive mindset, particularly if the economic outlook appears to be stabilising or company earnings outlooks are improving.

This can encourage incremental buying as portfolios are positioned for the year ahead.

Second, trading volumes are typically lighter over the holiday period with many institutional investors and fund managers on leave.

Third, the end of tax-loss selling for some regions (depending on their year-end tax year) can remove a key source of downward pressure. Finally, quieter corporate news flow over the holidays means fewer negative surprises.

Put simply, fewer sellers, modest buying, and a more optimistic tone can be enough to lift markets as the year wraps up in a jolly fashion.

Could Australia follow the US this Christmas?

The backdrop heading into the final weeks of the year remains constructive for global share markets. While the US has continued to deliver rapid growth, we've also seen strong regional performance by Asian markets like Japan and China. Historically, strong momentum from overseas share markets can spill over into Australia.

Locally, the Australian market hasn't quite matched the US in terms of earnings or share price growth, but there are still some festive bright spots lighting up the scene.

While inflation remains elevated and the Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a cautious, hawkish stance, company performance has been solid.

Resources have led the charge this year, with strong demand for commodities like copper pointing to the potential for a supercycle in the year ahead.

One of the more interesting themes emerging this year has been market broadening. While Australian large companies have dominated returns in recent years, small companies have quietly staged a comeback, delivering their best start to the year over their large-cap counterparts since 2009.

For investors, this raises an important consideration: is exposure limited to the top 20, 50, or even 200 companies enough? If the rally broadens, as it has so far this year, looking beyond the largest stocks to include mid and small caps could offer more balanced exposure to different parts of the market.

This is where looking beyond the top 200 to the top 300 could unwrap some potential gifts in broader market exposure.

Even Santa checks the price tag: Valuations matter at year-end

During the festive season, while people can be feeling quite merry, valuations can't be ignored. Australian shares are trading at some of the priciest levels in years.

While high valuations don't rule out further gains, they do highlight the need for being more selective, and a little prudence goes a long way, even under the Christmas lights.

This is where a growth at a reasonable price (GARP) approach can help. Rather than chasing the fastest-growing companies at any price, GARP focuses on businesses that are growing earnings steadily but are not excessively expensive.

In an environment where valuations are stretched, this balance can be especially valuable. For example, a portfolio of Australian GARP stocks has outperformed the broader market by over 3% so far this year.

The takeaway for investors

A Santa Claus Rally is never guaranteed, but the stars and reindeer might be aligning.

Strong global sentiment, led by AI innovation and the next wave of AI infrastructure and electrification, easing monetary policy, and a broadening market, all set the scene for a potentially positive end to the year and an optimistic start to the new year.

For investors, the key may be looking beyond the biggest names, keeping valuations in check, and staying growth-oriented.

Whether Santa delivers or not, the ultimate Christmas gift is a well-positioned, selectively bullish portfolio that is ready to tackle the year ahead and navigate whatever market noise comes its way.

This week on the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Tom Watson is joined by Dale Gillham, chief investment analyst at Wealth Within, to run through the Australian companies that investors may want to consider adding to their Christmas lists.

00:00 Introduction

02:31 2025 Australian market recap

07:54 Large cap picks for 2026

12:55 The world of micro caps

18:43 Concerns about index funds

21:04 Conclusion

Listen on Apple Podcasts

Listen on Spotify

Subscribe on YouTube for closed captions

Listen to this episode of Friends With Money

Listen on Apple Podcasts

Listen on Spotify

Watch on YouTube for closed captions

Subscribe to Friends With Money

Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts

Friends With Money podcast FAQ

What is the Friends With Money podcast?

Friends With Money is a weekly personal finance podcast by Money magazine, offering expert insights on investing, budgeting, superannuation, property, and other money strategies for everyday Australians.

Where can I listen to the podcast?

You can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube (with closed captions available).

Who hosts Friends With Money?

Episodes are hosted by Vanessa Walker and Tom Watson from Money magazine, featuring expert guests and real conversations about money.

Is the podcast suitable for beginners?

Yes! It's designed to be accessible for beginners while still offering valuable insights for seasoned investors.

What topics does the podcast cover?

The Friends With Money podcast covers topics including banking, property, budgeting, superannuation, investing, saving, insurance, employment, travel and more.

How often are new episodes released?

New episodes are released weekly, so you can stay up to date with the latest financial tips and trends.

Can I watch episodes with captions?

Yes, full episodes with closed captions are available on YouTube.

Why subscribe to the Friends With Money podcast?

Boost your financial literacy anytime, anywhere with the Friends With Money podcast from Money magazine. Whether you're commuting, working out, or relaxing at home, this weekly podcast makes it easy to grow your money knowledge on the go.

Each episode dives into real conversations about money - how it's earned, shared, saved, and grown - with tips and insights that make finance simple and relatable. Perfect for beginners and seasoned investors alike, it's your go-to guide for building better financial habits.

Subscribe to the Friends With Money podcast today and start learning when it suits you.

It's understandable why investors favour the US - it accounts for 70% of the global share market and has been one of the best-performing share markets over the past 10-15 years.

But there is much more on offer in global share markets outside of the US - just consider the Japanese stock market, home to some of the world's best-known brands. With the country's recent shift from decades of deflationary stagnation to sustainable earnings growth and shareholder return, now might be an opportune time for investors to pay attention to the land of the rising sun.

Japan's market surge: Key drivers in 2025

Just consider that several large Japanese companies have had stronger returns so far in 2025 than the likes of market darling Nvidia, including Softbank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and semiconductor supply company Advantest, for example.

Advantest has surged 125% so far this year to December 3 as more money is directed to companies linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Its 10-fold gain over five years has seen it become Japan's eighth largest company.

Elsewhere, industrial conglomerate Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has returned around 75% so far in 2025 compared to Nvidia's 20% gain, and soared more than 1500% over five years, compared to Nvidia's 1228% rise.

The top Japanese companies outperforming Nvidia

And while you may not have heard of SoftBank Group, a Japanese multinational investment firm, it has gained around 75% YTD and is headed by famed investor Masayoshi Son, who famously backed Alibaba, Uber and Yahoo, as well as Nvidia.

He recently sold his entire stake in the world's largest company for around US$5.83 billion to invest in other AI projects, including OpenAI.

Japan vs global markets: the numbers

More broadly, the Topix 100 Index, which tracks the largest 100 companies in Japan, has easily outperformed the US share market so far in 2025 with a 24% return compared to the Nasdaq Composite's 20% gain, the S&P 500's 16% rise, the S&P/ASX 200's 7% rise and 18% for European shares.

Japan has been one of the best performing developed markets over the past five years too.

Sectors powering Japan's growth: AI, autos and more

Importantly for investors seeking quality as well as growth, Japan is home to many well-known brand names such as Sony, Nintendo, Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi.

The nation's share market is exposed to important global sectors showing robust growth, including AI/semiconductors, electronics, gaming, automotive, defence, and industrial machinery.

Many of us wouldn't get around without our Japanese cars or enjoy life as much without Japanese electronics.

Toyota, Japan's largest company, is the world's largest carmaker and with Honda, both are attractively valued relative to European peers, trading at lower valuation multiples while maintaining strong profitability and global scale.

Sony, Japan's third largest company after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, is known globally for reliability in electronics and household appliances, a reputation it has built over decades. Nintendo, Japan's 10th largest firm, is now leveraging AI for advanced gameplay.

While a far cry from Tetris, which Nintendo secured the rights to put on its Game Boy, Nintendo is the world's video gaming leader after bringing portable gaming to the masses. And it's a stayer, with Super Mario celebrating its 40th anniversary this year.

Mitsubishi Electric and Hitachi are also global leaders in industrial automation, robotics, and AI-powered factory solutions supporting manufacturing and smart infrastructure.

Household cash shift: A catalyst for equities

The tourists have flocked to the nation to travel, but many investors aren't aware of the favourable dynamics underpinning the nation's stock market.

A key factor is that Japanese households may potentially start shifting from cash hoarding to putting money to work in their local share market.

With households and corporations traditionally holding large cash/deposit balances (a legacy of decades of deflation), rising wages and inflation make cash less attractive, and many Japanese savers may be redirecting funds into equities, especially via retail investor schemes and growing stock buybacks/dividends from Japanese companies.

For global context, Japanese households keep around 51% of their assets in cash, compared with about 12% for US households, and Japanese households hold only 18% in equities and investment trusts, versus around 55% in the US.

Valuation reset: Why Japan looks attractive now

A valuation reset is also adding to the potential for robust equity gains.

Many companies have been "undervalued" under the old regime of deflation, but a structural shift towards greater economic growth, inflation, better governance, and a renewed focus on shareholder returns provides a chance for an upside re-rating, making Japanese equities look increasingly attractive relative to global peers.

Despite a long period of deflation and slower GDP growth, Japanese corporate earnings have largely kept pace with global peers over the past few years, supported by cost discipline, export competitiveness, and structural reforms.

How Australians can invest in Japan easily

So, the outlook is bright in Nippon, the Land of the Rising Sun. For investors, it is accessible too.

ETFs offer the most cost-effective way to access large Japanese companies. Global X has recently launched the Japan TOPIX 100 ETF (ASX: J100), the first ETF in Australia to track Japan's premier TOPIX 100 index and the lowest-cost option on the market.

The ETF offers exposure to 100 of Japan's largest and best-known companies and provides a simple way for Australian investors to access Japan's blue-chip core at a pivotal moment for the region.

ASX-listed Japan ETFs recently recorded their highest monthly net inflows on record - a sign that momentum may already be turning.

As investors, it often pays to "skate to where the puck is going". Japan could be one of those markets to watch in 2026, with structural reforms, improving corporate governance, and attractive valuations positioning it for a potential return to favour.

They responded strongly, taking the Australian market to new highs, in a 26% turnaround.

Currently, the All-Ordinaries Index is up more than 8% for the year and looking bullish.

The rise has been driven mostly by the top 50 stocks, with communication services being the best sector, rising more than 16%, closely followed by consumer discretionary up more than 15%. Industrials, utilities and financials have also performed well this year, all up more than 11%.

Retail investors have come out in force chasing returns, as the standout indices have been emerging companies, up more than 18% and small ordinaries up more than 17%.

As a stockmarket educator, I regularly see mistakes being made by investors getting into these more speculative areas. I understand it, because cost-of-living pressures have caused these greed-fuelled rises to occur.

Investors are acting through FOMO and herd mentality, as they falsely believe they will make more from lower priced stocks. Sadly, we see many achieve the opposite as they fail to properly understand what they are investing in and how to manage risk.

Sectors to watch for growth over the next six months are materials, energy, consumer staples and IT.

For those chasing dividends, financials will continue to be a steady performer, as will real estate.

Where I would invest $10k

Investors with a little capital often tell me that they don't have enough to make investing worthwhile. This short-term thinking is detrimental to their success, as history proves it is not where you start that matters, but where you end up.

Investing $10,000 is simple and can reap good rewards if some basic rules are followed.

When doing research for my first book, I found that investors could easily beat index-tracking funds over 10 years by directly purchasing 10 stocks from the top 20 ASX stocks by market capitalisation.

My research included a stockmarket crash and showed that it did not really matter which 10 of those stocks you had, just that you held them for 10 years.

My suggestion is to forget about index funds or ETFs and invest $1000 directly in 10 different ASX stocks within the top 20. You will have fewer fees and make more profits.

WHERE TO INVEST $10K: Why EV ETFs are my top pick